Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 86-87°F (35.5%) and 84-85°F (32.5%) for New York City's Central Park high temperature today, driven by a potent early-season heat wave fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warm air advection, pushing anomalies 25-30°F above the April 15 normal of 61°F. National Weather Service guidance highlights potential to tie the 87°F record from 1941, with current mid-afternoon observations already reaching 83-85°F amid mostly clear skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—GFS leaning slightly warmer than ECMWF—plus uncertainties in peak afternoon insolation, possible thin high clouds, and sea breeze timing that could cap coastal heating. Hourly updates from Central Park will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 15?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 15?
86-87°F 37%
84-85°F 30%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 11%
$79,585 Vol.
$79,585 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
37%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 37%
84-85°F 30%
88-89°F 18%
82-83°F 11%
$79,585 Vol.
$79,585 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
79°F or below
$14,354 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$9,951 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$6,764 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$5,324 Vol.
30%
86-87°F
$5,430 Vol.
37%
88-89°F
$8,567 Vol.
18%
90-91°F
$7,133 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$4,498 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$2,888 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$4,846 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$10,090 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 86-87°F (35.5%) and 84-85°F (32.5%) for New York City's Central Park high temperature today, driven by a potent early-season heat wave fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warm air advection, pushing anomalies 25-30°F above the April 15 normal of 61°F. National Weather Service guidance highlights potential to tie the 87°F record from 1941, with current mid-afternoon observations already reaching 83-85°F amid mostly clear skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—GFS leaning slightly warmer than ECMWF—plus uncertainties in peak afternoon insolation, possible thin high clouds, and sea breeze timing that could cap coastal heating. Hourly updates from Central Park will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$79,585End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 86-87°F (35.5%) and 84-85°F (32.5%) for New York City's Central Park high temperature today, driven by a potent early-season heat wave fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warm air advection, pushing anomalies 25-30°F above the April 15 normal of 61°F. National Weather Service guidance highlights potential to tie the 87°F record from 1941, with current mid-afternoon observations already reaching 83-85°F amid mostly clear skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—GFS leaning slightly warmer than ECMWF—plus uncertainties in peak afternoon insolation, possible thin high clouds, and sea breeze timing that could cap coastal heating. Hourly updates from Central Park will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$79,585End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 86-87°F (35.5%) and 84-85°F (32.5%) for New York City's Central Park high temperature today, driven by a potent early-season heat wave fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and warm air advection, pushing anomalies 25-30°F above the April 15 normal of 61°F. National Weather Service guidance highlights potential to tie the 87°F record from 1941, with current mid-afternoon observations already reaching 83-85°F amid mostly clear skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread—GFS leaning slightly warmer than ECMWF—plus uncertainties in peak afternoon insolation, possible thin high clouds, and sea breeze timing that could cap coastal heating. Hourly updates from Central Park will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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