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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 17

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 17

13°C 33%

14°C 30%

12°C 14%

10°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 33%

14°C 30%

12°C 14%

10°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or below

$353 Vol.

2%

9°C

$147 Vol.

3%

10°C

$0 Vol.

12%

11°C

$0 Vol.

12%

12°C

$5 Vol.

14%

13°C

$25 Vol.

33%

14°C

$28 Vol.

30%

15°C

$11 Vol.

8%

16°C

$11 Vol.

6%

17°C

$192 Vol.

2%

18°C or higher

$272 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17 clustering at 13–14°C, driving trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities between these outcomes amid persistent northerly airflow channeling cool air over the Marmara Sea. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with this, forecasting overcast conditions suppressing daytime heating below the April climatological average of 16°C, a trend solidified by observations over the past week of sustained below-normal highs around 11–12°C. Differentiating 13°C from 14°C hinges on ensemble spread: ECMWF emphasizes thicker cloud decks limiting insolation, while GFS hints at partial afternoon clearing and better boundary layer mixing. New MGM hourly updates and 00z model cycles today could refine this uncertainty before official airport measurements resolve the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,017
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17 clustering at 13–14°C, driving trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities between these outcomes amid persistent northerly airflow channeling cool air over the Marmara Sea. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) aligns with this, forecasting overcast conditions suppressing daytime heating below the April climatological average of 16°C, a trend solidified by observations over the past week of sustained below-normal highs around 11–12°C. Differentiating 13°C from 14°C hinges on ensemble spread: ECMWF emphasizes thicker cloud decks limiting insolation, while GFS hints at partial afternoon clearing and better boundary layer mixing. New MGM hourly updates and 00z model cycles today could refine this uncertainty before official airport measurements resolve the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,017
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 33%, followed by "14°C" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?" is "13°C" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.