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Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 17

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 17

15°C 32%

17°C or higher 26%

16°C 23%

14°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

15°C 32%

17°C or higher 26%

16°C 23%

14°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$824 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$974 Vol.

1%

9°C

$655 Vol.

1%

10°C

$41 Vol.

3%

11°C

$113 Vol.

4%

12°C

$88 Vol.

3%

13°C

$13 Vol.

8%

14°C

$43 Vol.

20%

15°C

$46 Vol.

32%

16°C

$30 Vol.

23%

17°C or higher

$88 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 17 show maximum temperatures clustering tightly around 15-16°C, fueling trader sentiment with 15°C at 31.5% implied probability edging out 17°C or higher (29%) and 16°C (26%). This reflects model consensus amid uncertainty from variable cloud cover and potential transient rain showers, as per IMGW's weekly outlook indicating about 14°C in central Poland under overcast conditions that could limit solar insolation and suppress diurnal heating. Slightly warmer outcomes hinge on clearer skies enhancing boundary layer mixing, while cooler scenarios align with persistent low-level clouds. New 12z ECMWF/GFS runs and IMGW updates expected April 16 morning may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,875
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 17 show maximum temperatures clustering tightly around 15-16°C, fueling trader sentiment with 15°C at 31.5% implied probability edging out 17°C or higher (29%) and 16°C (26%). This reflects model consensus amid uncertainty from variable cloud cover and potential transient rain showers, as per IMGW's weekly outlook indicating about 14°C in central Poland under overcast conditions that could limit solar insolation and suppress diurnal heating. Slightly warmer outcomes hinge on clearer skies enhancing boundary layer mixing, while cooler scenarios align with persistent low-level clouds. New 12z ECMWF/GFS runs and IMGW updates expected April 16 morning may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official station data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,875
End Date
Apr 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15°C" at 32%, followed by "16°C" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?" is "15°C" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "16°C" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.