Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 24°C at 32% implied probability for Beijing on April 17, driven by ensemble forecast averages from models like GFS and ECMWF aligning with historical mid-April highs around 22-24°C amid spring's variable frontal patterns. Recent cooler conditions peaked at 21°C on April 14 with rain have given way to China Meteorological Administration projections of 26°C sunny skies and light southerly winds on the 17th, boosting odds for 25-27°C outcomes, while light rain forecast for April 16 introduces downside risk for 22-23°C via cloud-induced reduced solar heating. Key variables include post-frontal clearing speed, wind direction sustaining warm advection, and urban heat island effects; new model runs expected April 16 could sharpen this uncertainty as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
24°C 32%
23°C 19%
25°C 15%
26°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
21°C or below
5%
22°C
13%
23°C
19%
24°C
32%
25°C
15%
26°C
14%
27°C
7%
28°C
7%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
24°C 32%
23°C 19%
25°C 15%
26°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
21°C or below
$108 Vol.
5%
22°C
$4 Vol.
13%
23°C
$2 Vol.
19%
24°C
$8 Vol.
32%
25°C
$31 Vol.
15%
26°C
$4 Vol.
14%
27°C
$33 Vol.
7%
28°C
$26 Vol.
7%
29°C
$172 Vol.
1%
30°C
$436 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$370 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 24°C at 32% implied probability for Beijing on April 17, driven by ensemble forecast averages from models like GFS and ECMWF aligning with historical mid-April highs around 22-24°C amid spring's variable frontal patterns. Recent cooler conditions peaked at 21°C on April 14 with rain have given way to China Meteorological Administration projections of 26°C sunny skies and light southerly winds on the 17th, boosting odds for 25-27°C outcomes, while light rain forecast for April 16 introduces downside risk for 22-23°C via cloud-induced reduced solar heating. Key variables include post-frontal clearing speed, wind direction sustaining warm advection, and urban heat island effects; new model runs expected April 16 could sharpen this uncertainty as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ET
Volume
$1,192End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 24°C at 32% implied probability for Beijing on April 17, driven by ensemble forecast averages from models like GFS and ECMWF aligning with historical mid-April highs around 22-24°C amid spring's variable frontal patterns. Recent cooler conditions peaked at 21°C on April 14 with rain have given way to China Meteorological Administration projections of 26°C sunny skies and light southerly winds on the 17th, boosting odds for 25-27°C outcomes, while light rain forecast for April 16 introduces downside risk for 22-23°C via cloud-induced reduced solar heating. Key variables include post-frontal clearing speed, wind direction sustaining warm advection, and urban heat island effects; new model runs expected April 16 could sharpen this uncertainty as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,192End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 24°C at 32% implied probability for Beijing on April 17, driven by ensemble forecast averages from models like GFS and ECMWF aligning with historical mid-April highs around 22-24°C amid spring's variable frontal patterns. Recent cooler conditions peaked at 21°C on April 14 with rain have given way to China Meteorological Administration projections of 26°C sunny skies and light southerly winds on the 17th, boosting odds for 25-27°C outcomes, while light rain forecast for April 16 introduces downside risk for 22-23°C via cloud-induced reduced solar heating. Key variables include post-frontal clearing speed, wind direction sustaining warm advection, and urban heat island effects; new model runs expected April 16 could sharpen this uncertainty as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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