Forecast model ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, as reflected in guidance from AccuWeather and statistical projections, show New York City highs clustering around 77-80°F on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 25.5% implied probability for 77°F or below and 20% for 78-79°F amid tight competition. A high-pressure ridge building over the Northeast promises above-normal temperatures—well beyond the mid-April climatological average of 62°F—but potential afternoon clouds, 55% precipitation odds, and thunderstorms could cap peaks, differentiating lower bins from riskier 80°F+ outcomes at just 11%. Sea breezes and urban effects add uncertainty to exact maxima at Central Park, the market's resolution site; watch 12Z model updates today for shifts in cloud cover and instability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 17?
77°F or below 45%
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 15%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
45%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
1%
77°F or below 45%
78-79°F 26%
80-81°F 15%
82-83°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
$124 Vol.
45%
78-79°F
$37 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$30 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$32 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$93 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$217 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$148 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$746 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$675 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$825 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$932 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast model ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, as reflected in guidance from AccuWeather and statistical projections, show New York City highs clustering around 77-80°F on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 25.5% implied probability for 77°F or below and 20% for 78-79°F amid tight competition. A high-pressure ridge building over the Northeast promises above-normal temperatures—well beyond the mid-April climatological average of 62°F—but potential afternoon clouds, 55% precipitation odds, and thunderstorms could cap peaks, differentiating lower bins from riskier 80°F+ outcomes at just 11%. Sea breezes and urban effects add uncertainty to exact maxima at Central Park, the market's resolution site; watch 12Z model updates today for shifts in cloud cover and instability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,859End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast model ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, as reflected in guidance from AccuWeather and statistical projections, show New York City highs clustering around 77-80°F on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 25.5% implied probability for 77°F or below and 20% for 78-79°F amid tight competition. A high-pressure ridge building over the Northeast promises above-normal temperatures—well beyond the mid-April climatological average of 62°F—but potential afternoon clouds, 55% precipitation odds, and thunderstorms could cap peaks, differentiating lower bins from riskier 80°F+ outcomes at just 11%. Sea breezes and urban effects add uncertainty to exact maxima at Central Park, the market's resolution site; watch 12Z model updates today for shifts in cloud cover and instability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,859End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, as reflected in guidance from AccuWeather and statistical projections, show New York City highs clustering around 77-80°F on April 17, fueling trader consensus with 25.5% implied probability for 77°F or below and 20% for 78-79°F amid tight competition. A high-pressure ridge building over the Northeast promises above-normal temperatures—well beyond the mid-April climatological average of 62°F—but potential afternoon clouds, 55% precipitation odds, and thunderstorms could cap peaks, differentiating lower bins from riskier 80°F+ outcomes at just 11%. Sea breezes and urban effects add uncertainty to exact maxima at Central Park, the market's resolution site; watch 12Z model updates today for shifts in cloud cover and instability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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