Recent short-range forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and TimeandDate indicate maximum temperatures of 30–31 °C in São Paulo on August 18 under clear, dry anticyclonic conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter dry season. These align with INMET guidance of above-average temperatures across much of Brazil and stable high-pressure dominance suppressing cloud cover and precipitation. Climatological August maxima average near 25 °C, so current model consensus supports a modest positive anomaly without strong frontal passages or heat-wave amplification. Trader positioning around 30–31 °C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 32 °C or higher account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight cooling from local urban effects or minor timing shifts in ridge placement. Official INMET or airport observations the following day will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 18?
31°C 43%
30°C 30%
32°C 15%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
9%
30°C
30%
31°C
43%
32°C
15%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 43%
30°C 30%
32°C 15%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$35 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$96 Vol.
1%
28°C
$104 Vol.
4%
29°C
$144 Vol.
9%
30°C
$129 Vol.
30%
31°C
$724 Vol.
43%
32°C
$80 Vol.
15%
33°C
$50 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$55 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and TimeandDate indicate maximum temperatures of 30–31 °C in São Paulo on August 18 under clear, dry anticyclonic conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter dry season. These align with INMET guidance of above-average temperatures across much of Brazil and stable high-pressure dominance suppressing cloud cover and precipitation. Climatological August maxima average near 25 °C, so current model consensus supports a modest positive anomaly without strong frontal passages or heat-wave amplification. Trader positioning around 30–31 °C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 32 °C or higher account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight cooling from local urban effects or minor timing shifts in ridge placement. Official INMET or airport observations the following day will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,496End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and TimeandDate indicate maximum temperatures of 30–31 °C in São Paulo on August 18 under clear, dry anticyclonic conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter dry season. These align with INMET guidance of above-average temperatures across much of Brazil and stable high-pressure dominance suppressing cloud cover and precipitation. Climatological August maxima average near 25 °C, so current model consensus supports a modest positive anomaly without strong frontal passages or heat-wave amplification. Trader positioning around 30–31 °C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 32 °C or higher account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight cooling from local urban effects or minor timing shifts in ridge placement. Official INMET or airport observations the following day will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,496End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from sources including AccuWeather and TimeandDate indicate maximum temperatures of 30–31 °C in São Paulo on August 18 under clear, dry anticyclonic conditions typical of the Southern Hemisphere winter dry season. These align with INMET guidance of above-average temperatures across much of Brazil and stable high-pressure dominance suppressing cloud cover and precipitation. Climatological August maxima average near 25 °C, so current model consensus supports a modest positive anomaly without strong frontal passages or heat-wave amplification. Trader positioning around 30–31 °C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 32 °C or higher account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight cooling from local urban effects or minor timing shifts in ridge placement. Official INMET or airport observations the following day will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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