Cooler southeasterly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo ahead of August 24, driving trader consensus toward a highest temperature near 20°C (32.5% implied probability) or 21°C (26%). Official model runs show spread between 17–18°C under thicker overcast and 20–21°C if partial clearing allows more insolation, consistent with recent shifts from warmer, clearer conditions earlier in the month. Historical August maxima average near 24°C, but this pattern aligns with cooler anomalies. INMET observations and updated guidance tomorrow morning will resolve the market as cloud trends and boundary layer mixing become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 24?
20°C 32%
21°C 26%
19°C 20%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
6%
19°C
20%
20°C
32%
21°C
26%
22°C
14%
23°C
7%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 32%
21°C 26%
19°C 20%
22°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
1%
17°C
$20 Vol.
2%
18°C
$20 Vol.
6%
19°C
$187 Vol.
20%
20°C
$247 Vol.
32%
21°C
$258 Vol.
26%
22°C
$386 Vol.
14%
23°C
$229 Vol.
7%
24°C
$102 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$35 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cooler southeasterly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo ahead of August 24, driving trader consensus toward a highest temperature near 20°C (32.5% implied probability) or 21°C (26%). Official model runs show spread between 17–18°C under thicker overcast and 20–21°C if partial clearing allows more insolation, consistent with recent shifts from warmer, clearer conditions earlier in the month. Historical August maxima average near 24°C, but this pattern aligns with cooler anomalies. INMET observations and updated guidance tomorrow morning will resolve the market as cloud trends and boundary layer mixing become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,529End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cooler southeasterly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo ahead of August 24, driving trader consensus toward a highest temperature near 20°C (32.5% implied probability) or 21°C (26%). Official model runs show spread between 17–18°C under thicker overcast and 20–21°C if partial clearing allows more insolation, consistent with recent shifts from warmer, clearer conditions earlier in the month. Historical August maxima average near 24°C, but this pattern aligns with cooler anomalies. INMET observations and updated guidance tomorrow morning will resolve the market as cloud trends and boundary layer mixing become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,529End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cooler southeasterly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo ahead of August 24, driving trader consensus toward a highest temperature near 20°C (32.5% implied probability) or 21°C (26%). Official model runs show spread between 17–18°C under thicker overcast and 20–21°C if partial clearing allows more insolation, consistent with recent shifts from warmer, clearer conditions earlier in the month. Historical August maxima average near 24°C, but this pattern aligns with cooler anomalies. INMET observations and updated guidance tomorrow morning will resolve the market as cloud trends and boundary layer mixing become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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