Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 12°C high in Seoul on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs showing persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system and light northerly winds capping daytime heating. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance initially projected 16°C but has been discounted by traders due to increasing overcast conditions and 20-40% precipitation odds, aligning with a cooling trend after above-seasonal early April warmth. Key variables include cloud forcing timing, wind direction shifts (northerlies cooler, southerlies warmer), and model spread of 1-3°C; outcomes above 15°C require clearer skies, while below 11°C needs stronger cold air advection. Refined short-range forecasts from KMA expected April 4-5 will likely reduce uncertainty as the station resolves via Wunderground data from Incheon Airport. Historical early April highs average 13-14°C, contextualizing the clustered probabilities around 11-15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 6?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?
12°C 32%
13°C 19%
14°C 17%
11°C 14%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
32%
13°C
19%
14°C
17%
15°C
11%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
2%
12°C 32%
13°C 19%
14°C 17%
11°C 14%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
32%
13°C
19%
14°C
17%
15°C
11%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 12°C high in Seoul on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs showing persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system and light northerly winds capping daytime heating. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance initially projected 16°C but has been discounted by traders due to increasing overcast conditions and 20-40% precipitation odds, aligning with a cooling trend after above-seasonal early April warmth. Key variables include cloud forcing timing, wind direction shifts (northerlies cooler, southerlies warmer), and model spread of 1-3°C; outcomes above 15°C require clearer skies, while below 11°C needs stronger cold air advection. Refined short-range forecasts from KMA expected April 4-5 will likely reduce uncertainty as the station resolves via Wunderground data from Incheon Airport. Historical early April highs average 13-14°C, contextualizing the clustered probabilities around 11-15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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