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Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?

12°C 32%

13°C 19%

14°C 17%

11°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

12°C 32%

13°C 19%

14°C 17%

11°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$890 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$831 Vol.

1%

9°C

$679 Vol.

3%

10°C

$729 Vol.

7%

11°C

$647 Vol.

14%

12°C

$1,001 Vol.

32%

13°C

$641 Vol.

19%

14°C

$588 Vol.

17%

15°C

$676 Vol.

11%

16°C

$864 Vol.

8%

17°C or higher

$828 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 12°C high in Seoul on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs showing persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system and light northerly winds capping daytime heating. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance initially projected 16°C but has been discounted by traders due to increasing overcast conditions and 20-40% precipitation odds, aligning with a cooling trend after above-seasonal early April warmth. Key variables include cloud forcing timing, wind direction shifts (northerlies cooler, southerlies warmer), and model spread of 1-3°C; outcomes above 15°C require clearer skies, while below 11°C needs stronger cold air advection. Refined short-range forecasts from KMA expected April 4-5 will likely reduce uncertainty as the station resolves via Wunderground data from Incheon Airport. Historical early April highs average 13-14°C, contextualizing the clustered probabilities around 11-15°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,368
End Date
Apr 6, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 12°C high in Seoul on April 6, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs showing persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system and light northerly winds capping daytime heating. Recent Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance initially projected 16°C but has been discounted by traders due to increasing overcast conditions and 20-40% precipitation odds, aligning with a cooling trend after above-seasonal early April warmth. Key variables include cloud forcing timing, wind direction shifts (northerlies cooler, southerlies warmer), and model spread of 1-3°C; outcomes above 15°C require clearer skies, while below 11°C needs stronger cold air advection. Refined short-range forecasts from KMA expected April 4-5 will likely reduce uncertainty as the station resolves via Wunderground data from Incheon Airport. Historical early April highs average 13-14°C, contextualizing the clustered probabilities around 11-15°C.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,368
End Date
Apr 6, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12°C" at 32%, followed by "13°C" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?" is "12°C" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "13°C" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 6?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.