Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached 18°C midday on May 4 amid hazy sunshine and light westerly winds that capped solar heating, aligning with high-resolution short-range model consensus projecting no further warming into the evening. Current late-afternoon readings hover at 18-19°C across official stations, with cooling trends under diminishing daylight reinforcing trader lock-in at 100% implied probability for 18°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of near-resolution data, cooler than the early-May climatological average of around 20°C due to atmospheric stability. Realistic challenges—such as abrupt clearing skies triggering a 1-2°C late heat burst—remain improbable given forecast stability, with final KMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 4?
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$208,827 Vol.
$208,827 Vol.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$208,827 Vol.
$208,827 Vol.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
$980 Vol.
No
11°C
$445 Vol.
No
12°C
$723 Vol.
No
13°C
$9,505 Vol.
No
14°C
$8,320 Vol.
No
15°C
$26,303 Vol.
No
16°C
$23,242 Vol.
No
17°C
$22,329 Vol.
No
18°C
$29,481 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$32,810 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$54,689 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached 18°C midday on May 4 amid hazy sunshine and light westerly winds that capped solar heating, aligning with high-resolution short-range model consensus projecting no further warming into the evening. Current late-afternoon readings hover at 18-19°C across official stations, with cooling trends under diminishing daylight reinforcing trader lock-in at 100% implied probability for 18°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of near-resolution data, cooler than the early-May climatological average of around 20°C due to atmospheric stability. Realistic challenges—such as abrupt clearing skies triggering a 1-2°C late heat burst—remain improbable given forecast stability, with final KMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$208,827End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached 18°C midday on May 4 amid hazy sunshine and light westerly winds that capped solar heating, aligning with high-resolution short-range model consensus projecting no further warming into the evening. Current late-afternoon readings hover at 18-19°C across official stations, with cooling trends under diminishing daylight reinforcing trader lock-in at 100% implied probability for 18°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of near-resolution data, cooler than the early-May climatological average of around 20°C due to atmospheric stability. Realistic challenges—such as abrupt clearing skies triggering a 1-2°C late heat burst—remain improbable given forecast stability, with final KMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$208,827End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached 18°C midday on May 4 amid hazy sunshine and light westerly winds that capped solar heating, aligning with high-resolution short-range model consensus projecting no further warming into the evening. Current late-afternoon readings hover at 18-19°C across official stations, with cooling trends under diminishing daylight reinforcing trader lock-in at 100% implied probability for 18°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of near-resolution data, cooler than the early-May climatological average of around 20°C due to atmospheric stability. Realistic challenges—such as abrupt clearing skies triggering a 1-2°C late heat burst—remain improbable given forecast stability, with final KMA daily maximum report expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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