Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data from Seoul's official monitoring station confirms the highest temperature on May 5, 2026, peaked at exactly 18°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome as the market nears resolution. Preceding short-term KMA forecasts and global models like ECMWF projected mild daytime highs around 18-19°C amid a cool air mass, northerly winds, and partial cloud cover that suppressed solar heating on this Children's Day. Typical early-May highs in Seoul average 20-22°C, but current atmospheric conditions aligned with the cooler outcome. Scenarios challenging this include rare KMA data revisions from equipment recalibration or overlooked hourly observations exceeding 18°C, though official records carry authoritative weight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 5?
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$271,229 Vol.
$271,229 Vol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$271,229 Vol.
$271,229 Vol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$3,137 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,424 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,545 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,903 Vol.
No
14°C
$19,439 Vol.
No
15°C
$21,874 Vol.
No
16°C
$28,275 Vol.
No
17°C
$36,447 Vol.
No
18°C
$57,447 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$32,498 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$57,240 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data from Seoul's official monitoring station confirms the highest temperature on May 5, 2026, peaked at exactly 18°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome as the market nears resolution. Preceding short-term KMA forecasts and global models like ECMWF projected mild daytime highs around 18-19°C amid a cool air mass, northerly winds, and partial cloud cover that suppressed solar heating on this Children's Day. Typical early-May highs in Seoul average 20-22°C, but current atmospheric conditions aligned with the cooler outcome. Scenarios challenging this include rare KMA data revisions from equipment recalibration or overlooked hourly observations exceeding 18°C, though official records carry authoritative weight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$271,229End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data from Seoul's official monitoring station confirms the highest temperature on May 5, 2026, peaked at exactly 18°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome as the market nears resolution. Preceding short-term KMA forecasts and global models like ECMWF projected mild daytime highs around 18-19°C amid a cool air mass, northerly winds, and partial cloud cover that suppressed solar heating on this Children's Day. Typical early-May highs in Seoul average 20-22°C, but current atmospheric conditions aligned with the cooler outcome. Scenarios challenging this include rare KMA data revisions from equipment recalibration or overlooked hourly observations exceeding 18°C, though official records carry authoritative weight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$271,229End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data from Seoul's official monitoring station confirms the highest temperature on May 5, 2026, peaked at exactly 18°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome as the market nears resolution. Preceding short-term KMA forecasts and global models like ECMWF projected mild daytime highs around 18-19°C amid a cool air mass, northerly winds, and partial cloud cover that suppressed solar heating on this Children's Day. Typical early-May highs in Seoul average 20-22°C, but current atmospheric conditions aligned with the cooler outcome. Scenarios challenging this include rare KMA data revisions from equipment recalibration or overlooked hourly observations exceeding 18°C, though official records carry authoritative weight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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