Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project a high near 29°C in Shenzhen on April 17, reflecting trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for 29°C edging out 30°C at 29.5%, amid a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering warm advection and subsidence that suppresses clouds for much of the day. Differentiating factors include potential early thunderstorms or sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 28°C (21.5% odds) via evaporative cooling, versus prolonged sunshine amplifying urban heat island effects toward 30°C or slightly higher. April climatology averages 27°C highs with 2–3°C daily variability from convective showers; final resolution awaits China Meteorological Administration station data, with intraday observations key amid model spread of 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
29°C 36%
30°C 29%
28°C 22%
31°C 4.9%
NEW
$19,812 Vol.
NEW
$19,812 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
22%
29°C
36%
30°C
29%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
29°C 36%
30°C 29%
28°C 22%
31°C 4.9%
NEW
$19,812 Vol.
NEW
$19,812 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
22°C or below
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,359 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,592 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,727 Vol.
1%
26°C
$4,163 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,322 Vol.
3%
28°C
$795 Vol.
22%
29°C
$422 Vol.
36%
30°C
$1,190 Vol.
29%
31°C
$2,190 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$1,227 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project a high near 29°C in Shenzhen on April 17, reflecting trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for 29°C edging out 30°C at 29.5%, amid a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering warm advection and subsidence that suppresses clouds for much of the day. Differentiating factors include potential early thunderstorms or sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 28°C (21.5% odds) via evaporative cooling, versus prolonged sunshine amplifying urban heat island effects toward 30°C or slightly higher. April climatology averages 27°C highs with 2–3°C daily variability from convective showers; final resolution awaits China Meteorological Administration station data, with intraday observations key amid model spread of 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volume
$19,812End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project a high near 29°C in Shenzhen on April 17, reflecting trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for 29°C edging out 30°C at 29.5%, amid a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering warm advection and subsidence that suppresses clouds for much of the day. Differentiating factors include potential early thunderstorms or sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 28°C (21.5% odds) via evaporative cooling, versus prolonged sunshine amplifying urban heat island effects toward 30°C or slightly higher. April climatology averages 27°C highs with 2–3°C daily variability from convective showers; final resolution awaits China Meteorological Administration station data, with intraday observations key amid model spread of 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,812End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project a high near 29°C in Shenzhen on April 17, reflecting trader consensus with 32.5% implied probability for 29°C edging out 30°C at 29.5%, amid a strengthening subtropical ridge fostering warm advection and subsidence that suppresses clouds for much of the day. Differentiating factors include potential early thunderstorms or sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea, which could cap peaks at 28°C (21.5% odds) via evaporative cooling, versus prolonged sunshine amplifying urban heat island effects toward 30°C or slightly higher. April climatology averages 27°C highs with 2–3°C daily variability from convective showers; final resolution awaits China Meteorological Administration station data, with intraday observations key amid model spread of 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions