Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 Vol.
$52,348 Vol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 Vol.
$52,348 Vol.
May 11, 2026
21°C or below
$175 Vol.
No
22°C
$290 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,320 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,143 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,202 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,436 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,726 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,346 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$6,834 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,243 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$4,633 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET
Volume
$52,348End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$52,348End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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