Trader consensus centers on 33°C for Tel Aviv's August 21 high at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting Israel Meteorological Service and international model consensus projecting a daytime maximum near 32–33°C under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions of clear skies, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes. These factors limit heat advection and keep coastal maxima aligned with August climatology of roughly 31–32°C. Minor upside risk to 34°C (19%) stems from slight model spread on insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while cooler outcomes remain low-probability absent unexpected synoptic changes. Updated forecast runs and observational data through August 20 will refine resolution criteria ahead of the official highest-temperature reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 21?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 21?
33°C 67%
34°C 19%
32°C 15%
35°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
15%
33°C
67%
34°C
19%
35°C
3%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 67%
34°C 19%
32°C 15%
35°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
29°C or below
$118 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$332 Vol.
1%
31°C
$29 Vol.
2%
32°C
$65 Vol.
15%
33°C
$167 Vol.
67%
34°C
$81 Vol.
19%
35°C
$67 Vol.
3%
36°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 33°C for Tel Aviv's August 21 high at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting Israel Meteorological Service and international model consensus projecting a daytime maximum near 32–33°C under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions of clear skies, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes. These factors limit heat advection and keep coastal maxima aligned with August climatology of roughly 31–32°C. Minor upside risk to 34°C (19%) stems from slight model spread on insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while cooler outcomes remain low-probability absent unexpected synoptic changes. Updated forecast runs and observational data through August 20 will refine resolution criteria ahead of the official highest-temperature reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,339End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 33°C for Tel Aviv's August 21 high at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting Israel Meteorological Service and international model consensus projecting a daytime maximum near 32–33°C under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions of clear skies, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes. These factors limit heat advection and keep coastal maxima aligned with August climatology of roughly 31–32°C. Minor upside risk to 34°C (19%) stems from slight model spread on insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while cooler outcomes remain low-probability absent unexpected synoptic changes. Updated forecast runs and observational data through August 20 will refine resolution criteria ahead of the official highest-temperature reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,339End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 33°C for Tel Aviv's August 21 high at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting Israel Meteorological Service and international model consensus projecting a daytime maximum near 32–33°C under stable late-summer Mediterranean conditions of clear skies, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes. These factors limit heat advection and keep coastal maxima aligned with August climatology of roughly 31–32°C. Minor upside risk to 34°C (19%) stems from slight model spread on insolation and boundary-layer mixing, while cooler outcomes remain low-probability absent unexpected synoptic changes. Updated forecast runs and observational data through August 20 will refine resolution criteria ahead of the official highest-temperature reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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