Recent ensemble forecasts from major models show Warsaw under a warm southerly flow with strong high pressure favoring clear skies and minimal cloud cover on August 5, producing model consensus for a daily maximum in the upper 30s °C and explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 37–39 °C. Day-to-day variability in boundary-layer mixing, exact timing of peak insolation, and any late-day convective development introduce the small spread among leading outcomes, while historical August normals near 23–24 °C underscore the anomalous nature of the event. Updated runs from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and refined high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will further narrow uncertainty ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
39°C 27%
38°C 26%
37°C 24%
36°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C
3%
35°C
4%
36°C
12%
37°C
24%
38°C
26%
39°C
27%
40°C
8%
41°C or higher
1%
39°C 27%
38°C 26%
37°C 24%
36°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$454 Vol.
2%
33°C
$146 Vol.
2%
34°C
$6 Vol.
3%
35°C
$8 Vol.
4%
36°C
$46 Vol.
12%
37°C
$21 Vol.
24%
38°C
$74 Vol.
26%
39°C
$157 Vol.
27%
40°C
$166 Vol.
8%
41°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models show Warsaw under a warm southerly flow with strong high pressure favoring clear skies and minimal cloud cover on August 5, producing model consensus for a daily maximum in the upper 30s °C and explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 37–39 °C. Day-to-day variability in boundary-layer mixing, exact timing of peak insolation, and any late-day convective development introduce the small spread among leading outcomes, while historical August normals near 23–24 °C underscore the anomalous nature of the event. Updated runs from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and refined high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will further narrow uncertainty ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$2,129End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models show Warsaw under a warm southerly flow with strong high pressure favoring clear skies and minimal cloud cover on August 5, producing model consensus for a daily maximum in the upper 30s °C and explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 37–39 °C. Day-to-day variability in boundary-layer mixing, exact timing of peak insolation, and any late-day convective development introduce the small spread among leading outcomes, while historical August normals near 23–24 °C underscore the anomalous nature of the event. Updated runs from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and refined high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will further narrow uncertainty ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,129End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models show Warsaw under a warm southerly flow with strong high pressure favoring clear skies and minimal cloud cover on August 5, producing model consensus for a daily maximum in the upper 30s °C and explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 37–39 °C. Day-to-day variability in boundary-layer mixing, exact timing of peak insolation, and any late-day convective development introduce the small spread among leading outcomes, while historical August normals near 23–24 °C underscore the anomalous nature of the event. Updated runs from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and refined high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will further narrow uncertainty ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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