Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services converge on a daytime maximum of 26°C in Warsaw on June 5 under a weak high-pressure ridge featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup supports surface heating consistent with early-June climatology, where average highs range 22–24°C, and narrow ensemble spreads underpin the near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. Minor deviations in convective timing, low-level moisture, or steering patterns could limit the peak to 25°C or allow a brief rise to 27°C, though current observational trends and model consensus indicate low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 5?
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$69,459 Vol.
$69,459 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$69,459 Vol.
$69,459 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
18°C or below
$777 Vol.
No
19°C
$780 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,926 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,605 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,980 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,841 Vol.
No
24°C
$14,962 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,173 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,192 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$9,715 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$7,506 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services converge on a daytime maximum of 26°C in Warsaw on June 5 under a weak high-pressure ridge featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup supports surface heating consistent with early-June climatology, where average highs range 22–24°C, and narrow ensemble spreads underpin the near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. Minor deviations in convective timing, low-level moisture, or steering patterns could limit the peak to 25°C or allow a brief rise to 27°C, though current observational trends and model consensus indicate low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$69,459End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services converge on a daytime maximum of 26°C in Warsaw on June 5 under a weak high-pressure ridge featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup supports surface heating consistent with early-June climatology, where average highs range 22–24°C, and narrow ensemble spreads underpin the near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. Minor deviations in convective timing, low-level moisture, or steering patterns could limit the peak to 25°C or allow a brief rise to 27°C, though current observational trends and model consensus indicate low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69,459End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services converge on a daytime maximum of 26°C in Warsaw on June 5 under a weak high-pressure ridge featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. This setup supports surface heating consistent with early-June climatology, where average highs range 22–24°C, and narrow ensemble spreads underpin the near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. Minor deviations in convective timing, low-level moisture, or steering patterns could limit the peak to 25°C or allow a brief rise to 27°C, though current observational trends and model consensus indicate low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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