Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
CPI(M) 51%
INC 48%
BJP <1%
BSP <1%
$288,042 Vol.
$288,042 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
51%
INC
48%
BJP
1%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 51%
INC 48%
BJP <1%
BSP <1%
$288,042 Vol.
$288,042 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
$35,351 Vol.
51%
INC
$34,850 Vol.
48%
BJP
$61,440 Vol.
1%
BSP
$13,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$29,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$14,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$46,975 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$288,042End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$288,042End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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