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icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 45%

Charles Paquin 45%

Guy Veillette 43%

Laurent Bélisle 28%

Polymarket
NEW

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 45%

Charles Paquin 45%

Guy Veillette 43%

Laurent Bélisle 28%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Charles Paquin

Charles Paquin

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Guy Veillette

Guy Veillette

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Laurent Bélisle

Laurent Bélisle

$0 Vol.

28%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding, trader odds reflect a closely contested race driven by the broader provincial shift toward the Parti Québécois, which holds a narrow lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. The riding flipped to the Coalition Avenir Québec in 2022 with over 50% support but now projects as a toss-up, with Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ) and Guy Veillette (CAQ) as the primary contenders amid fragmented voter intentions. Charles Paquin (Conservative) and Laurent Bélisle (Liberal) trail with lower implied probabilities, consistent with regional patterns where the PQ gains ground outside Montreal while the CAQ defends incumbency advantages. Models from sources like 338Canada assign the PQ roughly 80% odds of victory based on current trends, though local candidate profiles and turnout in the Mauricie area could narrow or widen the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding, trader odds reflect a closely contested race driven by the broader provincial shift toward the Parti Québécois, which holds a narrow lead in recent polling averages ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. The riding flipped to the Coalition Avenir Québec in 2022 with over 50% support but now projects as a toss-up, with Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ) and Guy Veillette (CAQ) as the primary contenders amid fragmented voter intentions. Charles Paquin (Conservative) and Laurent Bélisle (Liberal) trail with lower implied probabilities, consistent with regional patterns where the PQ gains ground outside Montreal while the CAQ defends incumbency advantages. Models from sources like 338Canada assign the PQ roughly 80% odds of victory based on current trends, though local candidate profiles and turnout in the Mauricie area could narrow or widen the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 45%, followed by "Charles Paquin" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Charles Paquin" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.