Short-term forecast uncertainty for Ankara's minimum temperature on September 19 centers on evolving mid-tropospheric patterns over the eastern Mediterranean, where ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows variable low-level advection and cloud cover. Current model consensus favors overnight lows near 13–15°C under weak high pressure, consistent with the market's highest implied probabilities, while a potential northerly flow or clearer skies could push readings to 12°C or lower. Seasonal baselines place mid-September Ankara minima around 14–16°C, and traders are weighting the spread of solutions through resolution day, with fresh model updates expected to narrow the distribution ahead of the 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 19?
16°C 38%
17°C 38%
13°C 30%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
9°C or below
5%
10°C
5%
11°C
7%
12°C
11%
13°C
30%
14°C
28%
15°C
30%
16°C
38%
17°C
38%
18°C
19%
19°C or higher
9%
16°C 38%
17°C 38%
13°C 30%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
5%
11°C
$0 Vol.
7%
12°C
$0 Vol.
11%
13°C
$6 Vol.
30%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Ankara's minimum temperature on September 19 centers on evolving mid-tropospheric patterns over the eastern Mediterranean, where ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows variable low-level advection and cloud cover. Current model consensus favors overnight lows near 13–15°C under weak high pressure, consistent with the market's highest implied probabilities, while a potential northerly flow or clearer skies could push readings to 12°C or lower. Seasonal baselines place mid-September Ankara minima around 14–16°C, and traders are weighting the spread of solutions through resolution day, with fresh model updates expected to narrow the distribution ahead of the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Ankara's minimum temperature on September 19 centers on evolving mid-tropospheric patterns over the eastern Mediterranean, where ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows variable low-level advection and cloud cover. Current model consensus favors overnight lows near 13–15°C under weak high pressure, consistent with the market's highest implied probabilities, while a potential northerly flow or clearer skies could push readings to 12°C or lower. Seasonal baselines place mid-September Ankara minima around 14–16°C, and traders are weighting the spread of solutions through resolution day, with fresh model updates expected to narrow the distribution ahead of the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty for Ankara's minimum temperature on September 19 centers on evolving mid-tropospheric patterns over the eastern Mediterranean, where ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows variable low-level advection and cloud cover. Current model consensus favors overnight lows near 13–15°C under weak high pressure, consistent with the market's highest implied probabilities, while a potential northerly flow or clearer skies could push readings to 12°C or lower. Seasonal baselines place mid-September Ankara minima around 14–16°C, and traders are weighting the spread of solutions through resolution day, with fresh model updates expected to narrow the distribution ahead of the 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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