Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, with clear to mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure limiting radiative cooling. Daytime highs near 32–34°C under similar conditions will sustain elevated boundary-layer temperatures into the night. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–19°C because small differences in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the low by 1–2°C, while the broader warm anomaly relative to September climatology (average lows near 15°C) keeps sub-17°C outcomes priced lower. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables that could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
17°C 95%
20°C 95%
15°C 87%
21°C 80%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
28%
14°C
18%
15°C
87%
16°C
74%
17°C
95%
18°C
51%
19°C
51%
20°C
95%
21°C
80%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
33%
17°C 95%
20°C 95%
15°C 87%
21°C 80%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$149 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
87%
16°C
$0 Vol.
74%
17°C
$0 Vol.
95%
18°C
$0 Vol.
51%
19°C
$0 Vol.
51%
20°C
$0 Vol.
95%
21°C
$0 Vol.
80%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$201 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, with clear to mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure limiting radiative cooling. Daytime highs near 32–34°C under similar conditions will sustain elevated boundary-layer temperatures into the night. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–19°C because small differences in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the low by 1–2°C, while the broader warm anomaly relative to September climatology (average lows near 15°C) keeps sub-17°C outcomes priced lower. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$350End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, with clear to mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure limiting radiative cooling. Daytime highs near 32–34°C under similar conditions will sustain elevated boundary-layer temperatures into the night. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–19°C because small differences in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the low by 1–2°C, while the broader warm anomaly relative to September climatology (average lows near 15°C) keeps sub-17°C outcomes priced lower. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$350End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 18–22°C, with clear to mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure limiting radiative cooling. Daytime highs near 32–34°C under similar conditions will sustain elevated boundary-layer temperatures into the night. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–19°C because small differences in cloud cover or wind speed can shift the low by 1–2°C, while the broader warm anomaly relative to September climatology (average lows near 15°C) keeps sub-17°C outcomes priced lower. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain the key variables that could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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