Current forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a Cape Town minimum near 12–13°C on August 29, driven by strengthening southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and light precipitation potential. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 8–11°C, with occasional dips below 7°C when cold fronts align with clear skies. Trader emphasis on the 7°C-or-below outcome (41% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in model runs regarding wind strength and clearing timing, while probabilities clustered around 11–12°C (55% combined) align more closely with consensus guidance and recent observational trends. Updated model runs and official South African Weather Service briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
7°C or below 79%
11°C 28%
12°C 28%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
79%
8°C
8%
9°C
10%
10°C
27%
11°C
28%
12°C
28%
13°C
27%
14°C
21%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
4%
7°C or below 79%
11°C 28%
12°C 28%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
79%
8°C
$105 Vol.
8%
9°C
$46 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$85 Vol.
2%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a Cape Town minimum near 12–13°C on August 29, driven by strengthening southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and light precipitation potential. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 8–11°C, with occasional dips below 7°C when cold fronts align with clear skies. Trader emphasis on the 7°C-or-below outcome (41% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in model runs regarding wind strength and clearing timing, while probabilities clustered around 11–12°C (55% combined) align more closely with consensus guidance and recent observational trends. Updated model runs and official South African Weather Service briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$251End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a Cape Town minimum near 12–13°C on August 29, driven by strengthening southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and light precipitation potential. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 8–11°C, with occasional dips below 7°C when cold fronts align with clear skies. Trader emphasis on the 7°C-or-below outcome (41% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in model runs regarding wind strength and clearing timing, while probabilities clustered around 11–12°C (55% combined) align more closely with consensus guidance and recent observational trends. Updated model runs and official South African Weather Service briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$251End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a Cape Town minimum near 12–13°C on August 29, driven by strengthening southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, and light precipitation potential. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 8–11°C, with occasional dips below 7°C when cold fronts align with clear skies. Trader emphasis on the 7°C-or-below outcome (41% implied probability) likely reflects uncertainty in model runs regarding wind strength and clearing timing, while probabilities clustered around 11–12°C (55% combined) align more closely with consensus guidance and recent observational trends. Updated model runs and official South African Weather Service briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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