**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow. High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$80,573 Vol.
$80,573 Vol.
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
27°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$80,573 Vol.
$80,573 Vol.
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow. High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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