Recent forecasts from models including those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature on September 1 likely between 24–26 °C, driven by northeasterly winds and persistent cloud cover that limit daytime heating while maintaining high humidity and dew points near 24–25 °C overnight. This aligns with early September climatology, where average lows hover near 26 °C amid the transition from the southwest monsoon. Thunderstorm activity and light rain expected through the night further support modest cooling without significant cold advection. Trader consensus, reflected in the highest probabilities on 26 °C and 27 °C, tracks these official guidance runs and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps 25 °C as a viable secondary outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 1?
26°C 44%
27°C 32%
25°C 23%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
23%
26°C
44%
27°C
32%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 44%
27°C 32%
25°C 23%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
$236 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$93 Vol.
1%
24°C
$262 Vol.
3%
25°C
$112 Vol.
23%
26°C
$44 Vol.
44%
27°C
$31 Vol.
32%
28°C
$6 Vol.
4%
29°C
$67 Vol.
2%
30°C
$6 Vol.
1%
31°C
$94 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$194 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from models including those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature on September 1 likely between 24–26 °C, driven by northeasterly winds and persistent cloud cover that limit daytime heating while maintaining high humidity and dew points near 24–25 °C overnight. This aligns with early September climatology, where average lows hover near 26 °C amid the transition from the southwest monsoon. Thunderstorm activity and light rain expected through the night further support modest cooling without significant cold advection. Trader consensus, reflected in the highest probabilities on 26 °C and 27 °C, tracks these official guidance runs and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps 25 °C as a viable secondary outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,145End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from models including those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature on September 1 likely between 24–26 °C, driven by northeasterly winds and persistent cloud cover that limit daytime heating while maintaining high humidity and dew points near 24–25 °C overnight. This aligns with early September climatology, where average lows hover near 26 °C amid the transition from the southwest monsoon. Thunderstorm activity and light rain expected through the night further support modest cooling without significant cold advection. Trader consensus, reflected in the highest probabilities on 26 °C and 27 °C, tracks these official guidance runs and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps 25 °C as a viable secondary outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,145End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including those referenced by the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature on September 1 likely between 24–26 °C, driven by northeasterly winds and persistent cloud cover that limit daytime heating while maintaining high humidity and dew points near 24–25 °C overnight. This aligns with early September climatology, where average lows hover near 26 °C amid the transition from the southwest monsoon. Thunderstorm activity and light rain expected through the night further support modest cooling without significant cold advection. Trader consensus, reflected in the highest probabilities on 26 °C and 27 °C, tracks these official guidance runs and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, though slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing keeps 25 °C as a viable secondary outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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