**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum of 27°C on September 25 under moderating northeast monsoon flow and mainly fine conditions with east to southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's leading 56% implied probability for 27°C, as multiple sources project overnight lows near 26–27°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stability in model guidance, with no significant tropical cyclone impacts expected until later in the week, has reinforced trader consensus around this range. A 24% probability on 26°C reflects residual uncertainty in localized cooling or slight forecast adjustments, while higher outcomes like 28°C remain less favored given the consistent steering pattern and seasonal baseline for late September. Updated HKO briefings and model runs ahead of the date will be key for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 25?
27°C 56%
29°C 25%
21°C or below 20%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
21°C or below
20%
22°C
20%
23°C
19%
24°C
1%
25°C
10%
26°C
19%
27°C
56%
28°C
17%
29°C
25%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 56%
29°C 25%
21°C or below 20%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C
$53 Vol.
10%
26°C
$73 Vol.
19%
27°C
$250 Vol.
56%
28°C
$81 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$20 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum of 27°C on September 25 under moderating northeast monsoon flow and mainly fine conditions with east to southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's leading 56% implied probability for 27°C, as multiple sources project overnight lows near 26–27°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stability in model guidance, with no significant tropical cyclone impacts expected until later in the week, has reinforced trader consensus around this range. A 24% probability on 26°C reflects residual uncertainty in localized cooling or slight forecast adjustments, while higher outcomes like 28°C remain less favored given the consistent steering pattern and seasonal baseline for late September. Updated HKO briefings and model runs ahead of the date will be key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$499End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum of 27°C on September 25 under moderating northeast monsoon flow and mainly fine conditions with east to southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's leading 56% implied probability for 27°C, as multiple sources project overnight lows near 26–27°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stability in model guidance, with no significant tropical cyclone impacts expected until later in the week, has reinforced trader consensus around this range. A 24% probability on 26°C reflects residual uncertainty in localized cooling or slight forecast adjustments, while higher outcomes like 28°C remain less favored given the consistent steering pattern and seasonal baseline for late September. Updated HKO briefings and model runs ahead of the date will be key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$499End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum of 27°C on September 25 under moderating northeast monsoon flow and mainly fine conditions with east to southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's leading 56% implied probability for 27°C, as multiple sources project overnight lows near 26–27°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. Recent stability in model guidance, with no significant tropical cyclone impacts expected until later in the week, has reinforced trader consensus around this range. A 24% probability on 26°C reflects residual uncertainty in localized cooling or slight forecast adjustments, while higher outcomes like 28°C remain less favored given the consistent steering pattern and seasonal baseline for late September. Updated HKO briefings and model runs ahead of the date will be key for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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