Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate overnight lows in Istanbul on September 17 will likely settle between 17–19 °C under northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This range aligns closely with the city’s mid-September climatological minimum near 17–18 °C, leaving the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher binaries balanced at 50 % each as traders weigh small model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed against the narrow historical distribution of daily minima. Key resolution hinges on the precise timing of the overnight minimum and any localized urban heat-island effects; fresh model runs and official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest updates for positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 17?
25°C or higher 91%
15°C or below 83%
16°C 40%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
83%
16°C
40%
17°C
25%
18°C
26%
19°C
25%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
40%
25°C or higher
91%
25°C or higher 91%
15°C or below 83%
16°C 40%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
83%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate overnight lows in Istanbul on September 17 will likely settle between 17–19 °C under northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This range aligns closely with the city’s mid-September climatological minimum near 17–18 °C, leaving the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher binaries balanced at 50 % each as traders weigh small model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed against the narrow historical distribution of daily minima. Key resolution hinges on the precise timing of the overnight minimum and any localized urban heat-island effects; fresh model runs and official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest updates for positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate overnight lows in Istanbul on September 17 will likely settle between 17–19 °C under northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This range aligns closely with the city’s mid-September climatological minimum near 17–18 °C, leaving the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher binaries balanced at 50 % each as traders weigh small model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed against the narrow historical distribution of daily minima. Key resolution hinges on the precise timing of the overnight minimum and any localized urban heat-island effects; fresh model runs and official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest updates for positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate overnight lows in Istanbul on September 17 will likely settle between 17–19 °C under northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This range aligns closely with the city’s mid-September climatological minimum near 17–18 °C, leaving the 15 °C-or-below and 25 °C-or-higher binaries balanced at 50 % each as traders weigh small model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed against the narrow historical distribution of daily minima. Key resolution hinges on the precise timing of the overnight minimum and any localized urban heat-island effects; fresh model runs and official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest updates for positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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