Current ensemble forecasts from major models point to an overnight low near 18°C in Istanbul on September 19, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h, and surface pressures around 1018–1020 hPa that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have shown a modest cooling trend after earlier warmth, aligning with typical mid-September climatology where minimums average 15–17°C. The near-even market split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind timing, though observed trends and short-range guidance favor the middle bins. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 19?
23°C or higher 98%
13°C or below 96%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
96%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
21%
19°C
40%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C or higher
98%
23°C or higher 98%
13°C or below 96%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models point to an overnight low near 18°C in Istanbul on September 19, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h, and surface pressures around 1018–1020 hPa that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have shown a modest cooling trend after earlier warmth, aligning with typical mid-September climatology where minimums average 15–17°C. The near-even market split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind timing, though observed trends and short-range guidance favor the middle bins. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models point to an overnight low near 18°C in Istanbul on September 19, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h, and surface pressures around 1018–1020 hPa that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have shown a modest cooling trend after earlier warmth, aligning with typical mid-September climatology where minimums average 15–17°C. The near-even market split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind timing, though observed trends and short-range guidance favor the middle bins. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models point to an overnight low near 18°C in Istanbul on September 19, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h, and surface pressures around 1018–1020 hPa that limit radiative cooling. Recent days have shown a modest cooling trend after earlier warmth, aligning with typical mid-September climatology where minimums average 15–17°C. The near-even market split between sub-14°C and 23°C+ outcomes reflects model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind timing, though observed trends and short-range guidance favor the middle bins. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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