Current forecasts from regional models place Karachi's overnight minimum near 25–27°C, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow off the Arabian Sea that supplies warm, humid air and restricts radiative cooling. High dew points near 24°C and moderate winds further suppress temperature drops, aligning trader consensus around the 25°C and 26°C outcomes. Differentiation between these hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover and wind speed during the final hours before dawn, which control net longwave heat loss. The notable market weighting on 21°C or below captures uncertainty over any late convective activity or model underestimation of localized cooling, though official guidance from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows limited support for such extremes given September climatology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 12?
21°C or below 90%
24°C 10%
23°C 6%
22°C 4%
$671 Vol.
$671 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
90%
22°C
4%
23°C
6%
24°C
10%
25°C
47%
26°C
-
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 90%
24°C 10%
23°C 6%
22°C 4%
$671 Vol.
$671 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$35 Vol.
6%
24°C
$98 Vol.
10%
25°C
$243 Vol.
47%
26°C
$79 Vol.
-
27°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from regional models place Karachi's overnight minimum near 25–27°C, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow off the Arabian Sea that supplies warm, humid air and restricts radiative cooling. High dew points near 24°C and moderate winds further suppress temperature drops, aligning trader consensus around the 25°C and 26°C outcomes. Differentiation between these hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover and wind speed during the final hours before dawn, which control net longwave heat loss. The notable market weighting on 21°C or below captures uncertainty over any late convective activity or model underestimation of localized cooling, though official guidance from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows limited support for such extremes given September climatology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$671End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from regional models place Karachi's overnight minimum near 25–27°C, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow off the Arabian Sea that supplies warm, humid air and restricts radiative cooling. High dew points near 24°C and moderate winds further suppress temperature drops, aligning trader consensus around the 25°C and 26°C outcomes. Differentiation between these hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover and wind speed during the final hours before dawn, which control net longwave heat loss. The notable market weighting on 21°C or below captures uncertainty over any late convective activity or model underestimation of localized cooling, though official guidance from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows limited support for such extremes given September climatology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$671End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from regional models place Karachi's overnight minimum near 25–27°C, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow off the Arabian Sea that supplies warm, humid air and restricts radiative cooling. High dew points near 24°C and moderate winds further suppress temperature drops, aligning trader consensus around the 25°C and 26°C outcomes. Differentiation between these hinges on subtle variations in cloud cover and wind speed during the final hours before dawn, which control net longwave heat loss. The notable market weighting on 21°C or below captures uncertainty over any late convective activity or model underestimation of localized cooling, though official guidance from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department shows limited support for such extremes given September climatology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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