Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to a cooling trend after London's mid-July heatwave, with high pressure yielding clearer overnight skies that enhance radiative cooling and position the July 19 minimum near or below the 14°C forecast. Typical July climatological lows range 14–16°C, but reduced cloud cover and lighter winds compared with recent humid nights increase the chance of temperatures dipping toward 10–12°C, driving the 47% implied probability on 10°C or below. Trader consensus clusters around 11–14°C outcomes because forecast spreads remain modest yet favor the lower end of guidance, with resolution depending on the precise urban station reading and any last-minute model shifts before the 48-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 19?
Lowest temperature in London on July 19?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$14,085 Vol.
$14,085 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$14,085 Vol.
$14,085 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
10°C or below
$816 Vol.
No
11°C
$899 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,395 Vol.
No
13°C
$3,352 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,989 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$1,425 Vol.
No
16°C
$579 Vol.
No
17°C
$382 Vol.
No
18°C
$403 Vol.
No
19°C
$431 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$415 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to a cooling trend after London's mid-July heatwave, with high pressure yielding clearer overnight skies that enhance radiative cooling and position the July 19 minimum near or below the 14°C forecast. Typical July climatological lows range 14–16°C, but reduced cloud cover and lighter winds compared with recent humid nights increase the chance of temperatures dipping toward 10–12°C, driving the 47% implied probability on 10°C or below. Trader consensus clusters around 11–14°C outcomes because forecast spreads remain modest yet favor the lower end of guidance, with resolution depending on the precise urban station reading and any last-minute model shifts before the 48-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,085End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to a cooling trend after London's mid-July heatwave, with high pressure yielding clearer overnight skies that enhance radiative cooling and position the July 19 minimum near or below the 14°C forecast. Typical July climatological lows range 14–16°C, but reduced cloud cover and lighter winds compared with recent humid nights increase the chance of temperatures dipping toward 10–12°C, driving the 47% implied probability on 10°C or below. Trader consensus clusters around 11–14°C outcomes because forecast spreads remain modest yet favor the lower end of guidance, with resolution depending on the precise urban station reading and any last-minute model shifts before the 48-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,085End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to a cooling trend after London's mid-July heatwave, with high pressure yielding clearer overnight skies that enhance radiative cooling and position the July 19 minimum near or below the 14°C forecast. Typical July climatological lows range 14–16°C, but reduced cloud cover and lighter winds compared with recent humid nights increase the chance of temperatures dipping toward 10–12°C, driving the 47% implied probability on 10°C or below. Trader consensus clusters around 11–14°C outcomes because forecast spreads remain modest yet favor the lower end of guidance, with resolution depending on the precise urban station reading and any last-minute model shifts before the 48-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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