Trader consensus centers on a 66–71°F range for Los Angeles’s overnight low on August 21 because a moderate marine layer—cool, moist air advected onshore beneath the Pacific high—limits radiational cooling while warmer-than-average nearshore sea-surface temperatures reduce the temperature gradient. Model guidance shows the layer depth fluctuating around 700–1,500 feet, producing variable stratus coverage that can either enhance or suppress minimum temperatures by a few degrees depending on timing of onshore flow and any weak trough influence. Historical August climatology places typical downtown lows near 66°F, yet current subsidence and light winds favor readings a degree or two above that baseline; the tight spread among 66–67°F, 68–69°F, and 70–71°F outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact layer depth and any last-hour clearing before dawn. New National Weather Service updates or buoy data on sea-surface temperatures could shift probabilities before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on August 21?
68-69°F 52%
70-71°F 33%
62-63°F 28%
66-67°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
28%
64-65°F
28%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
28%
70-71°F
33%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 52%
70-71°F 33%
62-63°F 28%
66-67°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
61°F or below
$140 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$25 Vol.
28%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
28%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
28%
68-69°F
$6 Vol.
28%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
33%
72-73°F
$311 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$255 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$85 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$204 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$114 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on a 66–71°F range for Los Angeles’s overnight low on August 21 because a moderate marine layer—cool, moist air advected onshore beneath the Pacific high—limits radiational cooling while warmer-than-average nearshore sea-surface temperatures reduce the temperature gradient. Model guidance shows the layer depth fluctuating around 700–1,500 feet, producing variable stratus coverage that can either enhance or suppress minimum temperatures by a few degrees depending on timing of onshore flow and any weak trough influence. Historical August climatology places typical downtown lows near 66°F, yet current subsidence and light winds favor readings a degree or two above that baseline; the tight spread among 66–67°F, 68–69°F, and 70–71°F outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact layer depth and any last-hour clearing before dawn. New National Weather Service updates or buoy data on sea-surface temperatures could shift probabilities before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,140End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on a 66–71°F range for Los Angeles’s overnight low on August 21 because a moderate marine layer—cool, moist air advected onshore beneath the Pacific high—limits radiational cooling while warmer-than-average nearshore sea-surface temperatures reduce the temperature gradient. Model guidance shows the layer depth fluctuating around 700–1,500 feet, producing variable stratus coverage that can either enhance or suppress minimum temperatures by a few degrees depending on timing of onshore flow and any weak trough influence. Historical August climatology places typical downtown lows near 66°F, yet current subsidence and light winds favor readings a degree or two above that baseline; the tight spread among 66–67°F, 68–69°F, and 70–71°F outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact layer depth and any last-hour clearing before dawn. New National Weather Service updates or buoy data on sea-surface temperatures could shift probabilities before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,140End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on a 66–71°F range for Los Angeles’s overnight low on August 21 because a moderate marine layer—cool, moist air advected onshore beneath the Pacific high—limits radiational cooling while warmer-than-average nearshore sea-surface temperatures reduce the temperature gradient. Model guidance shows the layer depth fluctuating around 700–1,500 feet, producing variable stratus coverage that can either enhance or suppress minimum temperatures by a few degrees depending on timing of onshore flow and any weak trough influence. Historical August climatology places typical downtown lows near 66°F, yet current subsidence and light winds favor readings a degree or two above that baseline; the tight spread among 66–67°F, 68–69°F, and 70–71°F outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact layer depth and any last-hour clearing before dawn. New National Weather Service updates or buoy data on sea-surface temperatures could shift probabilities before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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