Recent forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 25–27°C amid lingering southwest monsoon moisture and variable cloud cover following the weakening of Tropical Depression Neneng. High humidity near 85–95% combined with scattered showers and thunderstorms reduces nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C. Steering winds from the west and potential for partial clearing versus persistent overcast conditions represent the main variables that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, with urban heat retention in Metro Manila further moderating extremes. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 22?
27°C 31%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
28°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
25%
24°C
27%
25°C
28%
26°C
29%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 31%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
28°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
$32 Vol.
2%
22°C
$30 Vol.
2%
23°C
$5 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$1 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$5 Vol.
26%
31°C or higher
$13 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 25–27°C amid lingering southwest monsoon moisture and variable cloud cover following the weakening of Tropical Depression Neneng. High humidity near 85–95% combined with scattered showers and thunderstorms reduces nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C. Steering winds from the west and potential for partial clearing versus persistent overcast conditions represent the main variables that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, with urban heat retention in Metro Manila further moderating extremes. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Volume
$86End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 25–27°C amid lingering southwest monsoon moisture and variable cloud cover following the weakening of Tropical Depression Neneng. High humidity near 85–95% combined with scattered showers and thunderstorms reduces nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C. Steering winds from the west and potential for partial clearing versus persistent overcast conditions represent the main variables that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, with urban heat retention in Metro Manila further moderating extremes. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$86End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 25–27°C amid lingering southwest monsoon moisture and variable cloud cover following the weakening of Tropical Depression Neneng. High humidity near 85–95% combined with scattered showers and thunderstorms reduces nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C. Steering winds from the west and potential for partial clearing versus persistent overcast conditions represent the main variables that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, with urban heat retention in Metro Manila further moderating extremes. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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