Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 22 highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds, keeping the market-implied odds for the lowest temperature tightly clustered near the long-term average low of 64–66°F. Lake Michigan moderation and potential scattered showers or a weak frontal boundary could either suppress or enhance minimum readings, with ensemble spreads showing some solutions dipping below 60°F while others hold above 70°F. Traders weigh these factors against historical August variability, where clear, calm nights produce sharper drops and any increased humidity or marine influence limits cooling. Updated model runs and evening observations tomorrow will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 22?
74°F or higher 88%
55°F or below 83%
66-67°F 48%
56-57°F 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
55°F or below
83%
56-57°F
43%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
29%
66-67°F
48%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
27%
74°F or higher
88%
74°F or higher 88%
55°F or below 83%
66-67°F 48%
56-57°F 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
55°F or below
$25 Vol.
83%
56-57°F
$25 Vol.
43%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
26%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
27%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
29%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
27%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74°F or higher
$30 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 22 highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds, keeping the market-implied odds for the lowest temperature tightly clustered near the long-term average low of 64–66°F. Lake Michigan moderation and potential scattered showers or a weak frontal boundary could either suppress or enhance minimum readings, with ensemble spreads showing some solutions dipping below 60°F while others hold above 70°F. Traders weigh these factors against historical August variability, where clear, calm nights produce sharper drops and any increased humidity or marine influence limits cooling. Updated model runs and evening observations tomorrow will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$80End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 22 highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds, keeping the market-implied odds for the lowest temperature tightly clustered near the long-term average low of 64–66°F. Lake Michigan moderation and potential scattered showers or a weak frontal boundary could either suppress or enhance minimum readings, with ensemble spreads showing some solutions dipping below 60°F while others hold above 70°F. Traders weigh these factors against historical August variability, where clear, calm nights produce sharper drops and any increased humidity or marine influence limits cooling. Updated model runs and evening observations tomorrow will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$80End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 22 highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light winds, keeping the market-implied odds for the lowest temperature tightly clustered near the long-term average low of 64–66°F. Lake Michigan moderation and potential scattered showers or a weak frontal boundary could either suppress or enhance minimum readings, with ensemble spreads showing some solutions dipping below 60°F while others hold above 70°F. Traders weigh these factors against historical August variability, where clear, calm nights produce sharper drops and any increased humidity or marine influence limits cooling. Updated model runs and evening observations tomorrow will likely refine the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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