PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila show a minimum of 24–25°C on August 23 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, isolated rain showers, and highs near 29–30°C. Recent station data record overnight lows of 24.4°C, consistent with typical rainy-season baselines where persistent cloud cover and humidity limit radiative cooling. Model consensus emphasizes steady monsoon flow without direct tropical cyclone impacts, though scattered thunderstorms could locally suppress the minimum by 1°C through added moisture and reduced clear-sky cooling. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 24–27°C outcomes because small shifts in overnight wind, rainfall timing, or cloud thickness—common in monsoon regimes—can easily move the recorded low across these thresholds before the August 23 minimum is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 23?
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
9%
23°C
18%
24°C
19%
25°C
19%
26°C
19%
27°C
19%
28°C
19%
29°C
13%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
21°C or below
$20 Vol.
2%
22°C
$31 Vol.
9%
23°C
$23 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$0 Vol.
19%
28°C
$5 Vol.
19%
29°C
$11 Vol.
13%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila show a minimum of 24–25°C on August 23 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, isolated rain showers, and highs near 29–30°C. Recent station data record overnight lows of 24.4°C, consistent with typical rainy-season baselines where persistent cloud cover and humidity limit radiative cooling. Model consensus emphasizes steady monsoon flow without direct tropical cyclone impacts, though scattered thunderstorms could locally suppress the minimum by 1°C through added moisture and reduced clear-sky cooling. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 24–27°C outcomes because small shifts in overnight wind, rainfall timing, or cloud thickness—common in monsoon regimes—can easily move the recorded low across these thresholds before the August 23 minimum is finalized.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$122End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila show a minimum of 24–25°C on August 23 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, isolated rain showers, and highs near 29–30°C. Recent station data record overnight lows of 24.4°C, consistent with typical rainy-season baselines where persistent cloud cover and humidity limit radiative cooling. Model consensus emphasizes steady monsoon flow without direct tropical cyclone impacts, though scattered thunderstorms could locally suppress the minimum by 1°C through added moisture and reduced clear-sky cooling. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 24–27°C outcomes because small shifts in overnight wind, rainfall timing, or cloud thickness—common in monsoon regimes—can easily move the recorded low across these thresholds before the August 23 minimum is finalized.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$122End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila show a minimum of 24–25°C on August 23 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, isolated rain showers, and highs near 29–30°C. Recent station data record overnight lows of 24.4°C, consistent with typical rainy-season baselines where persistent cloud cover and humidity limit radiative cooling. Model consensus emphasizes steady monsoon flow without direct tropical cyclone impacts, though scattered thunderstorms could locally suppress the minimum by 1°C through added moisture and reduced clear-sky cooling. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 24–27°C outcomes because small shifts in overnight wind, rainfall timing, or cloud thickness—common in monsoon regimes—can easily move the recorded low across these thresholds before the August 23 minimum is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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