Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies like the German Weather Service (DWD) and global models position the overnight low in Munich for September 1 near the 12–14 °C range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.3 °C and recent years’ observations. Clear to partly cloudy conditions under a transient high-pressure influence favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 22–24 °C, while limited moisture and light winds reduce the chance of warmer boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied probabilities weighting 9 °C or below most heavily reflect residual model spread and historical precedent for occasional sharp nighttime drops in early September, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum reported by official stations. Updated model runs through the weekend will further refine these odds ahead of the calendar-day minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
15°C 47%
9°C or below 40%
12°C 30%
11°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
40%
10°C
25%
11°C
26%
12°C
30%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
47%
16°C
2%
17°C
25%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
7%
15°C 47%
9°C or below 40%
12°C 30%
11°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
$30 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
30%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
47%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies like the German Weather Service (DWD) and global models position the overnight low in Munich for September 1 near the 12–14 °C range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.3 °C and recent years’ observations. Clear to partly cloudy conditions under a transient high-pressure influence favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 22–24 °C, while limited moisture and light winds reduce the chance of warmer boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied probabilities weighting 9 °C or below most heavily reflect residual model spread and historical precedent for occasional sharp nighttime drops in early September, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum reported by official stations. Updated model runs through the weekend will further refine these odds ahead of the calendar-day minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies like the German Weather Service (DWD) and global models position the overnight low in Munich for September 1 near the 12–14 °C range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.3 °C and recent years’ observations. Clear to partly cloudy conditions under a transient high-pressure influence favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 22–24 °C, while limited moisture and light winds reduce the chance of warmer boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied probabilities weighting 9 °C or below most heavily reflect residual model spread and historical precedent for occasional sharp nighttime drops in early September, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum reported by official stations. Updated model runs through the weekend will further refine these odds ahead of the calendar-day minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies like the German Weather Service (DWD) and global models position the overnight low in Munich for September 1 near the 12–14 °C range, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.3 °C and recent years’ observations. Clear to partly cloudy conditions under a transient high-pressure influence favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 22–24 °C, while limited moisture and light winds reduce the chance of warmer boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied probabilities weighting 9 °C or below most heavily reflect residual model spread and historical precedent for occasional sharp nighttime drops in early September, with resolution hinging on the final observed minimum reported by official stations. Updated model runs through the weekend will further refine these odds ahead of the calendar-day minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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