Trader sentiment for the June 19 NYC low temperature market reflects broad model consensus around typical mid-June overnight conditions, with leading bins (68–75°F) capturing nearly 60% of implied probability due to limited spread in current guidance. Primary drivers include a dominant high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate radiative cooling overnight, alongside dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s that limit further drops. Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service show subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds that separate the 68–69°F, 70–71°F, and 74–75°F outcomes, while historical climatology (average June minimum near 67°F) anchors expectations. With resolution approaching, any late model shift in cloud cover or marine influence could quickly reprice the tightly clustered probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on June 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on June 19?
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$23,838 Vol.
$23,838 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$23,838 Vol.
$23,838 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
61°F or below
$287 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$1,207 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,932 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,674 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$2,012 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$5,357 Vol.
Yes
72-73°F
$4,163 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,330 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$2,481 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$2,766 Vol.
No
80°F or higher
$630 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the June 19 NYC low temperature market reflects broad model consensus around typical mid-June overnight conditions, with leading bins (68–75°F) capturing nearly 60% of implied probability due to limited spread in current guidance. Primary drivers include a dominant high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate radiative cooling overnight, alongside dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s that limit further drops. Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service show subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds that separate the 68–69°F, 70–71°F, and 74–75°F outcomes, while historical climatology (average June minimum near 67°F) anchors expectations. With resolution approaching, any late model shift in cloud cover or marine influence could quickly reprice the tightly clustered probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$23,838End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the June 19 NYC low temperature market reflects broad model consensus around typical mid-June overnight conditions, with leading bins (68–75°F) capturing nearly 60% of implied probability due to limited spread in current guidance. Primary drivers include a dominant high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate radiative cooling overnight, alongside dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s that limit further drops. Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service show subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds that separate the 68–69°F, 70–71°F, and 74–75°F outcomes, while historical climatology (average June minimum near 67°F) anchors expectations. With resolution approaching, any late model shift in cloud cover or marine influence could quickly reprice the tightly clustered probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,838End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader sentiment for the June 19 NYC low temperature market reflects broad model consensus around typical mid-June overnight conditions, with leading bins (68–75°F) capturing nearly 60% of implied probability due to limited spread in current guidance. Primary drivers include a dominant high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate radiative cooling overnight, alongside dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s that limit further drops. Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service show subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds that separate the 68–69°F, 70–71°F, and 74–75°F outcomes, while historical climatology (average June minimum near 67°F) anchors expectations. With resolution approaching, any late model shift in cloud cover or marine influence could quickly reprice the tightly clustered probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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