Uncertainty in overnight marine layer depth, cloud cover, and onshore flow strength from the Pacific is driving the tight probabilities for Seattle's August 24 minimum temperature, with 58-59°F and sub-50°F outcomes nearly tied. National Weather Service model guidance shows variable marine stratus influence that can suppress radiational cooling under clear skies or moderate temperatures when low clouds persist, producing forecast lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 50s against occasional cooler scenarios. This aligns with August climatology of 56-58°F average minima, where small shifts in wind direction or boundary layer moisture create the observed spread among 56-57°F, 58-59°F, and colder bins. Traders weigh the latest NWS and NOAA runs ahead of the resolution window, as any strengthening of the marine push could favor the lower tail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on August 24?
64-65°F 52%
49°F or below 51%
68°F or higher 51%
50-51°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
51%
50-51°F
50%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
31%
56-57°F
41%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
52%
66-67°F
14%
68°F or higher
51%
64-65°F 52%
49°F or below 51%
68°F or higher 51%
50-51°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
51%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
50%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
11%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
31%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
41%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
52%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
14%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in overnight marine layer depth, cloud cover, and onshore flow strength from the Pacific is driving the tight probabilities for Seattle's August 24 minimum temperature, with 58-59°F and sub-50°F outcomes nearly tied. National Weather Service model guidance shows variable marine stratus influence that can suppress radiational cooling under clear skies or moderate temperatures when low clouds persist, producing forecast lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 50s against occasional cooler scenarios. This aligns with August climatology of 56-58°F average minima, where small shifts in wind direction or boundary layer moisture create the observed spread among 56-57°F, 58-59°F, and colder bins. Traders weigh the latest NWS and NOAA runs ahead of the resolution window, as any strengthening of the marine push could favor the lower tail.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in overnight marine layer depth, cloud cover, and onshore flow strength from the Pacific is driving the tight probabilities for Seattle's August 24 minimum temperature, with 58-59°F and sub-50°F outcomes nearly tied. National Weather Service model guidance shows variable marine stratus influence that can suppress radiational cooling under clear skies or moderate temperatures when low clouds persist, producing forecast lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 50s against occasional cooler scenarios. This aligns with August climatology of 56-58°F average minima, where small shifts in wind direction or boundary layer moisture create the observed spread among 56-57°F, 58-59°F, and colder bins. Traders weigh the latest NWS and NOAA runs ahead of the resolution window, as any strengthening of the marine push could favor the lower tail.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in overnight marine layer depth, cloud cover, and onshore flow strength from the Pacific is driving the tight probabilities for Seattle's August 24 minimum temperature, with 58-59°F and sub-50°F outcomes nearly tied. National Weather Service model guidance shows variable marine stratus influence that can suppress radiational cooling under clear skies or moderate temperatures when low clouds persist, producing forecast lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 50s against occasional cooler scenarios. This aligns with August climatology of 56-58°F average minima, where small shifts in wind direction or boundary layer moisture create the observed spread among 56-57°F, 58-59°F, and colder bins. Traders weigh the latest NWS and NOAA runs ahead of the resolution window, as any strengthening of the marine push could favor the lower tail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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