Recent forecast model runs highlight persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds associated with a frontal boundary, limiting daytime heating and promoting modest overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo. These conditions anchor the minimum temperature near the historical early-September baseline of roughly 22°C while introducing uncertainty from exact rainfall timing and wind speeds. The closely matched 22–23°C market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on this narrow range, with slight model divergences in boundary-layer moisture and advection of cooler air determining whether the low settles at 22°C or edges to 23°C. Updated guidance expected from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
23°C 41%
22°C 39%
24°C 16%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
6%
22°C
39%
23°C
41%
24°C
16%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
23°C 41%
22°C 39%
24°C 16%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$65 Vol.
3%
21°C
$63 Vol.
6%
22°C
$843 Vol.
39%
23°C
$140 Vol.
41%
24°C
$279 Vol.
16%
25°C
$0 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds associated with a frontal boundary, limiting daytime heating and promoting modest overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo. These conditions anchor the minimum temperature near the historical early-September baseline of roughly 22°C while introducing uncertainty from exact rainfall timing and wind speeds. The closely matched 22–23°C market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on this narrow range, with slight model divergences in boundary-layer moisture and advection of cooler air determining whether the low settles at 22°C or edges to 23°C. Updated guidance expected from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,390End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds associated with a frontal boundary, limiting daytime heating and promoting modest overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo. These conditions anchor the minimum temperature near the historical early-September baseline of roughly 22°C while introducing uncertainty from exact rainfall timing and wind speeds. The closely matched 22–23°C market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on this narrow range, with slight model divergences in boundary-layer moisture and advection of cooler air determining whether the low settles at 22°C or edges to 23°C. Updated guidance expected from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,390End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs highlight persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northerly winds associated with a frontal boundary, limiting daytime heating and promoting modest overnight radiative cooling over Tokyo. These conditions anchor the minimum temperature near the historical early-September baseline of roughly 22°C while introducing uncertainty from exact rainfall timing and wind speeds. The closely matched 22–23°C market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on this narrow range, with slight model divergences in boundary-layer moisture and advection of cooler air determining whether the low settles at 22°C or edges to 23°C. Updated guidance expected from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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