Forecast models show substantial uncertainty for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23, with northwest winds and a passing frontal system expected to deliver daytime highs near 13–15 °C before skies clear overnight. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could allow the mercury to drop toward single digits Celsius, yet strong gradient winds may limit boundary-layer decoupling and keep readings closer to 10–11 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect variable steering patterns and precipitation timing, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around 10–11 °C while assigning non-negligible weight to colder outliers if a brief southerly change arrives. Official MetService and international guidance will be updated through the weekend, directly informing the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
11°C 37%
10°C 30%
12°C 18%
9°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
11%
7°C
11%
8°C
13%
9°C
16%
10°C
30%
11°C
33%
12°C
18%
13°C
15%
14°C
8%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 37%
10°C 30%
12°C 18%
9°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
$32 Vol.
1%
6°C
$20 Vol.
11%
7°C
$20 Vol.
11%
8°C
$0 Vol.
13%
9°C
$0 Vol.
16%
10°C
$0 Vol.
30%
11°C
$9 Vol.
33%
12°C
$55 Vol.
18%
13°C
$27 Vol.
15%
14°C
$5 Vol.
8%
15°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show substantial uncertainty for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23, with northwest winds and a passing frontal system expected to deliver daytime highs near 13–15 °C before skies clear overnight. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could allow the mercury to drop toward single digits Celsius, yet strong gradient winds may limit boundary-layer decoupling and keep readings closer to 10–11 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect variable steering patterns and precipitation timing, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around 10–11 °C while assigning non-negligible weight to colder outliers if a brief southerly change arrives. Official MetService and international guidance will be updated through the weekend, directly informing the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$194End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models show substantial uncertainty for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23, with northwest winds and a passing frontal system expected to deliver daytime highs near 13–15 °C before skies clear overnight. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could allow the mercury to drop toward single digits Celsius, yet strong gradient winds may limit boundary-layer decoupling and keep readings closer to 10–11 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect variable steering patterns and precipitation timing, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around 10–11 °C while assigning non-negligible weight to colder outliers if a brief southerly change arrives. Official MetService and international guidance will be updated through the weekend, directly informing the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$194End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models show substantial uncertainty for Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23, with northwest winds and a passing frontal system expected to deliver daytime highs near 13–15 °C before skies clear overnight. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could allow the mercury to drop toward single digits Celsius, yet strong gradient winds may limit boundary-layer decoupling and keep readings closer to 10–11 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect variable steering patterns and precipitation timing, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities around 10–11 °C while assigning non-negligible weight to colder outliers if a brief southerly change arrives. Official MetService and international guidance will be updated through the weekend, directly informing the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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