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Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Dan Koh 73%

Mariah Lancaster 8.8%

Tram Nguyen 4.6%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito 3.4%

Polymarket

$35,251 Vol.

Dan Koh 73%

Mariah Lancaster 8.8%

Tram Nguyen 4.6%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito 3.4%

Polymarket

$35,251 Vol.

Dan Koh

$4,060 Vol.

73%

Mariah Lancaster

$1,881 Vol.

9%

Tram Nguyen

$4,160 Vol.

5%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

$2,164 Vol.

3%

Kevin Larivee

$1,449 Vol.

3%

Dominick Pangallo

$5,955 Vol.

3%

John Beccia

$1,724 Vol.

3%

Rachel Creemers

$2,074 Vol.

2%

Diann Slavit Baylis

$5,025 Vol.

2%

Rick Jakious

$3,398 Vol.

1%

Seth Moulton

$1,800 Vol.

1%

Beth Andres-Beck

$1,562 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open-seat Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District on September 1, 2026—vacated by Rep. Seth Moulton’s U.S. Senate challenge against Ed Markey—former Biden White House aide Dan Koh commands trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, driven by his unmatched fundraising totaling around $3.5 million through Q1 2026 and first-to-ballot qualification via over 2,000 signatures in late March. High-profile endorsements from Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, ex-Mayor Marty Walsh, IBEW Local 2222, and recent local backers like Swampscott Select Board Vice Chair Doug Thompson (April 1) bolster his frontrunner status in this crowded field of over 10 candidates. Veterinarian Mariah Lancaster trails at 8.8% amid fragmented support for rivals like State Rep. Tram Nguyen, with Koh’s resource edge signaling strong path-to-victory potential despite primary uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,251
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open-seat Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District on September 1, 2026—vacated by Rep. Seth Moulton’s U.S. Senate challenge against Ed Markey—former Biden White House aide Dan Koh commands trader consensus at 72.5% implied probability, driven by his unmatched fundraising totaling around $3.5 million through Q1 2026 and first-to-ballot qualification via over 2,000 signatures in late March. High-profile endorsements from Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, ex-Mayor Marty Walsh, IBEW Local 2222, and recent local backers like Swampscott Select Board Vice Chair Doug Thompson (April 1) bolster his frontrunner status in this crowded field of over 10 candidates. Veterinarian Mariah Lancaster trails at 8.8% amid fragmented support for rivals like State Rep. Tram Nguyen, with Koh’s resource edge signaling strong path-to-victory potential despite primary uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,251
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Koh" at 73%, followed by "Mariah Lancaster" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $35.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dan Koh" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mariah Lancaster" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.