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Tech·AI Benchmarks

Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

icon for Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
Tech·AI Benchmarks

Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

$12,552 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$12,552 Vol.

Polymarket

35%+

$1,238 Vol.

97%

40%+

$2,152 Vol.

94%

45%+

$3,210 Vol.

91%

50%+

$4,286 Vol.

52%

55%+

$1,664 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration in the Claude Opus lineup continues to shape trader views on its next model’s Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) debut, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning over 100 subjects designed to test graduate-level reasoning. The July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 quickly claimed the top HLE spot at 64.7 percent accuracy, edging out variants like Claude Mythos 5 and outpacing GPT-5 and Gemini 3 series entries amid fierce frontier lab competition. Prior Opus updates, including 4.8 in May and 4.6 earlier in the year, demonstrated consistent gains in tool-augmented and thinking-mode evaluations on this benchmark. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus versioning, developer conferences, or official Anthropic announcements that could shift leaderboard positioning before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.

Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.

The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,552
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:36 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration in the Claude Opus lineup continues to shape trader views on its next model’s Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) debut, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning over 100 subjects designed to test graduate-level reasoning. The July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 quickly claimed the top HLE spot at 64.7 percent accuracy, edging out variants like Claude Mythos 5 and outpacing GPT-5 and Gemini 3 series entries amid fierce frontier lab competition. Prior Opus updates, including 4.8 in May and 4.6 earlier in the year, demonstrated consistent gains in tool-augmented and thinking-mode evaluations on this benchmark. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Opus versioning, developer conferences, or official Anthropic announcements that could shift leaderboard positioning before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.

Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.

The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,552
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:36 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.9, claude-opus-5.0-thinking, claude-opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "35%+" at 97%, followed by "40%+" at 94%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?" has generated $12.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?" is "35%+" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40%+" at 94%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.