Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 60% implied probability to win the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling lead—such as the August 2025 Saint Anselm survey showing her at 23% versus Maura Sullivan's 9%—bolstered by name recognition as daughter of Senator Jeanne Shaheen and fresh endorsements on May 1 from all district Democratic mayors. Sullivan holds at 30% on strong fundraising, raising over $700,000 in Q1 2026 to outpace rivals, while Carleigh Beriont (8%) and Heath Howard (6.1%) trail amid an April 9 candidate forum and competitive field for the open seat vacated by Chris Pappas' Senate bid. Filing deadline is June 12, with undecided voters key to shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStefany Shaheen 60%
Maura Sullivan 26%
Carleigh Beriont 7%
Heath Howard 3.5%
$13,719 Vol.
$13,719 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
60%
Maura Sullivan
26%
Carleigh Beriont
7%
Heath Howard
7%
Stefany Shaheen 60%
Maura Sullivan 26%
Carleigh Beriont 7%
Heath Howard 3.5%
$13,719 Vol.
$13,719 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
60%
Maura Sullivan
26%
Carleigh Beriont
7%
Heath Howard
7%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 60% implied probability to win the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling lead—such as the August 2025 Saint Anselm survey showing her at 23% versus Maura Sullivan's 9%—bolstered by name recognition as daughter of Senator Jeanne Shaheen and fresh endorsements on May 1 from all district Democratic mayors. Sullivan holds at 30% on strong fundraising, raising over $700,000 in Q1 2026 to outpace rivals, while Carleigh Beriont (8%) and Heath Howard (6.1%) trail amid an April 9 candidate forum and competitive field for the open seat vacated by Chris Pappas' Senate bid. Filing deadline is June 12, with undecided voters key to shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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