With over 90% of votes tabulated from Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, trader consensus heavily favors Keiko Fujimori securing a 5%+ margin of victory at 84.4% implied probability, as official ONPE counts show her at around 17% versus Roberto Sánchez's 12% in second place—stable despite logistical delays from ballot delivery issues that extended voting and counting into a third day. Exit polls and quick counts aligned with pre-election surveys depicting Fujimori leading a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates, none nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a June 7 runoff between the top two. Unsubstantiated fraud claims have failed to shift the lead, reinforcing market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 86.2%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 12.8%
Other 2.9%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$299,154 Vol.
$299,154 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
86%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
13%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Other
3%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 86.2%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 12.8%
Other 2.9%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$299,154 Vol.
$299,154 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$8,336 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$10,022 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,707 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$11,227 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$6,911 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,047 Vol.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$84,454 Vol.
86%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$112,783 Vol.
13%
Jorge Nieto
$6,335 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$10,618 Vol.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,420 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$5,810 Vol.
<1%
Other
$25,818 Vol.
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 90% of votes tabulated from Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, trader consensus heavily favors Keiko Fujimori securing a 5%+ margin of victory at 84.4% implied probability, as official ONPE counts show her at around 17% versus Roberto Sánchez's 12% in second place—stable despite logistical delays from ballot delivery issues that extended voting and counting into a third day. Exit polls and quick counts aligned with pre-election surveys depicting Fujimori leading a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates, none nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a June 7 runoff between the top two. Unsubstantiated fraud claims have failed to shift the lead, reinforcing market positioning.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$299,154End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 90% of votes tabulated from Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, trader consensus heavily favors Keiko Fujimori securing a 5%+ margin of victory at 84.4% implied probability, as official ONPE counts show her at around 17% versus Roberto Sánchez's 12% in second place—stable despite logistical delays from ballot delivery issues that extended voting and counting into a third day. Exit polls and quick counts aligned with pre-election surveys depicting Fujimori leading a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates, none nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a June 7 runoff between the top two. Unsubstantiated fraud claims have failed to shift the lead, reinforcing market positioning.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$299,154End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 90% of votes tabulated from Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round election, trader consensus heavily favors Keiko Fujimori securing a 5%+ margin of victory at 84.4% implied probability, as official ONPE counts show her at around 17% versus Roberto Sánchez's 12% in second place—stable despite logistical delays from ballot delivery issues that extended voting and counting into a third day. Exit polls and quick counts aligned with pre-election surveys depicting Fujimori leading a fragmented field of over a dozen candidates, none nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a June 7 runoff between the top two. Unsubstantiated fraud claims have failed to shift the lead, reinforcing market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
63%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
61%
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