Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 95% implied probability, driven by box office tracking estimates of $35-45 million from outlets like Boxoffice Pro. This reflects a projected 50% drop from last weekend's $68.1 million haul across 4,284 theaters—a steeper decline than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold—and softer midweek business, including Tuesday's $4.8 million. Lacking major family competition this frame supports a floor near $35 million, but franchise decay and domestic cume trailing the original at $315 million reinforce the sub-$44 million outlook. An upset to $44 million-plus would require stronger word-of-mouth legs or unexpected family turnout, with final tallies due Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<44m 94.9%
44-48m 3.7%
48-52m <1%
>52m <1%
$39,254 Vol.
$39,254 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
95%
44-48m
4%
48-52m
1%
>52m
1%
<44m 94.9%
44-48m 3.7%
48-52m <1%
>52m <1%
$39,254 Vol.
$39,254 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
$3,511 Vol.
95%
44-48m
$5,450 Vol.
4%
48-52m
$8,313 Vol.
1%
>52m
$21,985 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 95% implied probability, driven by box office tracking estimates of $35-45 million from outlets like Boxoffice Pro. This reflects a projected 50% drop from last weekend's $68.1 million haul across 4,284 theaters—a steeper decline than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold—and softer midweek business, including Tuesday's $4.8 million. Lacking major family competition this frame supports a floor near $35 million, but franchise decay and domestic cume trailing the original at $315 million reinforce the sub-$44 million outlook. An upset to $44 million-plus would require stronger word-of-mouth legs or unexpected family turnout, with final tallies due Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$39,254End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 95% implied probability, driven by box office tracking estimates of $35-45 million from outlets like Boxoffice Pro. This reflects a projected 50% drop from last weekend's $68.1 million haul across 4,284 theaters—a steeper decline than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold—and softer midweek business, including Tuesday's $4.8 million. Lacking major family competition this frame supports a floor near $35 million, but franchise decay and domestic cume trailing the original at $315 million reinforce the sub-$44 million outlook. An upset to $44 million-plus would require stronger word-of-mouth legs or unexpected family turnout, with final tallies due Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$39,254End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 95% implied probability, driven by box office tracking estimates of $35-45 million from outlets like Boxoffice Pro. This reflects a projected 50% drop from last weekend's $68.1 million haul across 4,284 theaters—a steeper decline than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold—and softer midweek business, including Tuesday's $4.8 million. Lacking major family competition this frame supports a floor near $35 million, but franchise decay and domestic cume trailing the original at $315 million reinforce the sub-$44 million outlook. An upset to $44 million-plus would require stronger word-of-mouth legs or unexpected family turnout, with final tallies due Sunday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions