Tom Sell's commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas's 19th Congressional District, where he topped the field in the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, has propelled trader consensus to over 90% implied probability ahead of the May 26 runoff against Abraham Enriquez. Recent endorsements from State Rep. Carl Tepper, Lubbock Young Republicans, former primary rivals, Rep. Frank Lucas, and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan underscore Sell's appeal as a fifth-generation West Texan rancher and agriculture policy veteran with strong establishment backing. Enriquez trails at 6%, but a high-profile Trump endorsement, superior base turnout in this low-participation runoff, or unexpected scandal could narrow the gap before early voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTom Sell 91.8%
Abraham Enriquez 5.3%
Jason Corley <1%
Ryan Zink <1%
$70,369 Vol.
$70,369 Vol.
Tom Sell
92%
Abraham Enriquez
5%
Jason Corley
<1%
Ryan Zink
<1%
Donald May
<1%
Matthew Smith
<1%
James Barbee
<1%
Tom Sell 91.8%
Abraham Enriquez 5.3%
Jason Corley <1%
Ryan Zink <1%
$70,369 Vol.
$70,369 Vol.
Tom Sell
92%
Abraham Enriquez
5%
Jason Corley
<1%
Ryan Zink
<1%
Donald May
<1%
Matthew Smith
<1%
James Barbee
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Sell's commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas's 19th Congressional District, where he topped the field in the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, has propelled trader consensus to over 90% implied probability ahead of the May 26 runoff against Abraham Enriquez. Recent endorsements from State Rep. Carl Tepper, Lubbock Young Republicans, former primary rivals, Rep. Frank Lucas, and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan underscore Sell's appeal as a fifth-generation West Texan rancher and agriculture policy veteran with strong establishment backing. Enriquez trails at 6%, but a high-profile Trump endorsement, superior base turnout in this low-participation runoff, or unexpected scandal could narrow the gap before early voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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