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Elections·US Election

California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition

icon for California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition
Elections·US Election

California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

43% chance
Polymarket
NEW
43% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California's Proposition 1, the Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2026, authorizes $11.25 billion in general obligation bonds for affordable rental housing, homeownership programs, farmworker and tribal housing, student housing, and veteran loans. Lawmakers placed the measure on the November 2026 ballot through Senate Bill 417, following a June 2026 three-party agreement among Governor Newsom, the Senate, and Assembly that replenishes exhausted state housing funds. The bond allocates $10 billion to production and preservation programs plus $1.25 billion for veterans, with repayment estimated at $500–600 million annually from the general fund. Trader consensus at 60.5% for passage reflects sustained legislative backing and ongoing housing shortages, offset by voter caution over new state debt and competing November ballot items. No major organized opposition has emerged since the June announcement.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,182
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California's Proposition 1, the Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2026, authorizes $11.25 billion in general obligation bonds for affordable rental housing, homeownership programs, farmworker and tribal housing, student housing, and veteran loans. Lawmakers placed the measure on the November 2026 ballot through Senate Bill 417, following a June 2026 three-party agreement among Governor Newsom, the Senate, and Assembly that replenishes exhausted state housing funds. The bond allocates $10 billion to production and preservation programs plus $1.25 billion for veterans, with repayment estimated at $500–600 million annually from the general fund. Trader consensus at 60.5% for passage reflects sustained legislative backing and ongoing housing shortages, offset by voter caution over new state debt and competing November ballot items. No major organized opposition has emerged since the June announcement.

Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,182
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 1 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow a record $11.25 billion for affordable housing, with $10 billion to buy, build, rehabilitate and preserve affordable homes and $1.25 billion to help veterans buy homes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 59% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 59¢, the market collectively assigns a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" is 59% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 59% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Affordable Housing Bond Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.