Polymarket traders price a 35% implied probability of UK 2026 annual GDP growth contracting (<0%) and 32% for 0-1% growth, closely trailing the OECD and IMF consensus forecasts of 0.7-0.8% amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran war, which threaten to exacerbate energy price shocks and inflation. February 2026 monthly GDP surged 0.5%—beating estimates and lifting revised Q1 momentum—yet OBR's March outlook holds at 1.1%, with downside risks from tighter Bank of England policy and global slowdown dominating sentiment over services-led resilience. Key swing factors include war escalation, oil above $90/barrel, and Q1 full GDP data due May 14; bullish 4-5% odds at 25.5% reflect potential fiscal relief offsetting headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<0 29%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
35%
0-1%
27%
1-2%
19%
2-3%
8%
3-4%
10%
4-5%
10%
5%+
6%
<0 29%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$334 Vol.
35%
0-1%
$309 Vol.
27%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
19%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
8%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
10%
4-5%
$411 Vol.
10%
5%+
$252 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 35% implied probability of UK 2026 annual GDP growth contracting (<0%) and 32% for 0-1% growth, closely trailing the OECD and IMF consensus forecasts of 0.7-0.8% amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran war, which threaten to exacerbate energy price shocks and inflation. February 2026 monthly GDP surged 0.5%—beating estimates and lifting revised Q1 momentum—yet OBR's March outlook holds at 1.1%, with downside risks from tighter Bank of England policy and global slowdown dominating sentiment over services-led resilience. Key swing factors include war escalation, oil above $90/barrel, and Q1 full GDP data due May 14; bullish 4-5% odds at 25.5% reflect potential fiscal relief offsetting headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,964End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 35% implied probability of UK 2026 annual GDP growth contracting (<0%) and 32% for 0-1% growth, closely trailing the OECD and IMF consensus forecasts of 0.7-0.8% amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran war, which threaten to exacerbate energy price shocks and inflation. February 2026 monthly GDP surged 0.5%—beating estimates and lifting revised Q1 momentum—yet OBR's March outlook holds at 1.1%, with downside risks from tighter Bank of England policy and global slowdown dominating sentiment over services-led resilience. Key swing factors include war escalation, oil above $90/barrel, and Q1 full GDP data due May 14; bullish 4-5% odds at 25.5% reflect potential fiscal relief offsetting headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,964End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 35% implied probability of UK 2026 annual GDP growth contracting (<0%) and 32% for 0-1% growth, closely trailing the OECD and IMF consensus forecasts of 0.7-0.8% amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran war, which threaten to exacerbate energy price shocks and inflation. February 2026 monthly GDP surged 0.5%—beating estimates and lifting revised Q1 momentum—yet OBR's March outlook holds at 1.1%, with downside risks from tighter Bank of England policy and global slowdown dominating sentiment over services-led resilience. Key swing factors include war escalation, oil above $90/barrel, and Q1 full GDP data due May 14; bullish 4-5% odds at 25.5% reflect potential fiscal relief offsetting headwinds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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