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Elections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Danielle Martin 96.2%

Andy D’Andrea 1.8%

Imran Khan 1.6%

Leslie Bory 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Danielle Martin 96.2%

Andy D’Andrea 1.8%

Imran Khan 1.6%

Leslie Bory 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW
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Danielle Martin

$206 Vol.

96%

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Andy D’Andrea

$81 Vol.

2%

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Imran Khan

$69 Vol.

2%

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Leslie Bory

$69 Vol.

1%

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Bill Whatcott

$69 Vol.

1%

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Raiden DeDominicis

$69 Vol.

1%

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Don Hodgson

$81 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Massey

$81 Vol.

1%

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Serena Purdy

$69 Vol.

1%

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Samuel Baxter

$69 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Danielle Martin holds a commanding 96% trader consensus as the Liberal frontrunner in the University—Rosedale federal by-election set for April 13, driven by the riding's entrenched Liberal dominance—Chrystia Freeland captured 64% there in the 2025 general election—and Martin's profile as a University of Toronto family medicine chair and health care advocate. Advance polls opened April 3 amid active Liberal door-knocking by MPs, underscoring organizational strength in this urban Toronto district. Fragmented opposition, including Conservative Don Hodgson (23% in 2025) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), lacks momentum per historical base rates in low-turnout by-elections. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, national backlash boosting Conservatives, or surge turnout tilting against the government, though structural advantages point to a Liberal hold.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$324
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Danielle Martin holds a commanding 96% trader consensus as the Liberal frontrunner in the University—Rosedale federal by-election set for April 13, driven by the riding's entrenched Liberal dominance—Chrystia Freeland captured 64% there in the 2025 general election—and Martin's profile as a University of Toronto family medicine chair and health care advocate. Advance polls opened April 3 amid active Liberal door-knocking by MPs, underscoring organizational strength in this urban Toronto district. Fragmented opposition, including Conservative Don Hodgson (23% in 2025) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), lacks momentum per historical base rates in low-turnout by-elections. Realistic challenges include a late scandal, national backlash boosting Conservatives, or surge turnout tilting against the government, though structural advantages point to a Liberal hold.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$324
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Danielle Martin" at 96%, followed by "Andy D’Andrea" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" is "Danielle Martin" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andy D’Andrea" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "University—Rosedale By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.