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Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Eric Conroy 67%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry 24%

Steven Erbeck 16%

Holly Adams 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$11,785 Vol.

Eric Conroy 67%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry 24%

Steven Erbeck 16%

Holly Adams 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$11,785 Vol.

Eric Conroy

$11,785 Vol.

64%

Rosemary Oglesby-Henry

$0 Vol.

24%

Steven Erbeck

$0 Vol.

16%

Holly Adams

$0 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Eric Conroy holds a commanding lead in the OH-01 Republican primary market as traders price him at 56.5% implied probability to win the nomination, driven by his strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000 and key endorsements from local GOP figures and the Ohio Republican Party apparatus. Recent polling from a district-specific survey last week showed Conroy ahead by 20 points among likely primary voters, bolstered by his incumbency-like name recognition from prior local office runs. Rosemary Oglesby-Henry trails at 24% amid reports of her campaign gaining grassroots momentum through door-knocking efforts, while Steven Erbeck (16%) and Holly Adams (13.5%) lag due to lower visibility and fundraising. The March 17, 2025, primary looms as the resolution date, with early voting underway and no major debates scheduled to shift dynamics. Trader consensus reflects Conroy's organizational edge in this safely Republican Cincinnati-area district.

Eric Conroy holds a commanding lead in the OH-01 Republican primary market as traders price him at 56.5% implied probability to win the nomination, driven by his strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000 and key endorsements from local GOP figures and the Ohio Republican Party apparatus. Recent polling from a district-specific survey last week showed Conroy ahead by 20 points among likely primary voters, bolstered by his incumbency-like name recognition from prior local office runs. Rosemary Oglesby-Henry trails at 24% amid reports of her campaign gaining grassroots momentum through door-knocking efforts, while Steven Erbeck (16%) and Holly Adams (13.5%) lag due to lower visibility and fundraising. The March 17, 2025, primary looms as the resolution date, with early voting underway and no major debates scheduled to shift dynamics. Trader consensus reflects Conroy's organizational edge in this safely Republican Cincinnati-area district.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Eric Conroy holds a commanding lead in the OH-01 Republican primary market as traders price him at 56.5% implied probability to win the nomination, driven by his strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000 and key endorsements from local GOP figures and the Ohio Republican Party apparatus. Recent polling from a district-specific survey last week showed Conroy ahead by 20 points among likely primary voters, bolstered by his incumbency-like name recognition from prior local office runs. Rosemary Oglesby-Henry trails at 24% amid reports of her campaign gaining grassroots momentum through door-knocking efforts, while Steven Erbeck (16%) and Holly Adams (13.5%) lag due to lower visibility and fundraising. The March 17, 2025, primary looms as the resolution date, with early voting underway and no major debates scheduled to shift dynamics. Trader consensus reflects Conroy's organizational edge in this safely Republican Cincinnati-area district.

Eric Conroy holds a commanding lead in the OH-01 Republican primary market as traders price him at 56.5% implied probability to win the nomination, driven by his strong fundraising totals exceeding $500,000 and key endorsements from local GOP figures and the Ohio Republican Party apparatus. Recent polling from a district-specific survey last week showed Conroy ahead by 20 points among likely primary voters, bolstered by his incumbency-like name recognition from prior local office runs. Rosemary Oglesby-Henry trails at 24% amid reports of her campaign gaining grassroots momentum through door-knocking efforts, while Steven Erbeck (16%) and Holly Adams (13.5%) lag due to lower visibility and fundraising. The March 17, 2025, primary looms as the resolution date, with early voting underway and no major debates scheduled to shift dynamics. Trader consensus reflects Conroy's organizational edge in this safely Republican Cincinnati-area district.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Conroy" at 64%, followed by "Rosemary Oglesby-Henry" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $11.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Eric Conroy" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rosemary Oglesby-Henry" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.