Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
Tech·Apple

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

icon for Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
Tech·Apple

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

$444,177 Vol.

Sep 10, 2026
Polymarket

$444,177 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for September 9

September 9

$953 Vol.

5%

icon for September 10

September 10

$4,262 Vol.

6%

icon for September 15

September 15

$5,595 Vol.

31%

icon for September 30

September 30

$5,924 Vol.

75%

icon for December 31

December 31

$427,444 Vol.

94%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected to appear as the premium “iPhone Ultra” or similar model, remains on track for a September 2026 unveiling at the company’s “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and multiple supply-chain reports indicate the book-style device—featuring a roughly 7.8-inch inner OLED with minimal crease, titanium hinge, and pricing above $2,000—has cleared key validation stages, with component shipments underway despite earlier concerns over hinge durability and yield. iOS 27 beta code already includes fold-state detection and dynamic app resizing, supporting the hardware timeline. Traders are watching the September 9 announcement and any last-minute production updates for confirmation that the device will reach stores this fall alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,177
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s first foldable iPhone, widely expected to appear as the premium “iPhone Ultra” or similar model, remains on track for a September 2026 unveiling at the company’s “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and multiple supply-chain reports indicate the book-style device—featuring a roughly 7.8-inch inner OLED with minimal crease, titanium hinge, and pricing above $2,000—has cleared key validation stages, with component shipments underway despite earlier concerns over hinge durability and yield. iOS 27 beta code already includes fold-state detection and dynamic app resizing, supporting the hardware timeline. Traders are watching the September 9 announcement and any last-minute production updates for confirmation that the device will reach stores this fall alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,177
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Apple Announces Foldable iPhone at “Surprise and Shine” Event?

Apple Announces Foldable iPhone at “Surprise and Shine” Event?

93%
icon for Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

99%
icon for Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

61%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 94%, followed by "September 30" at 75%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?" has generated $444.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?" is "December 31" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 75%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.