Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report on Chinese military power, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, joint landing capacity, and sustained logistics for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and blockade rehearsals. Recent PLA purges of senior commanders have further disrupted command structures, extending the timeline for readiness according to multiple analyses, while Beijing has emphasized gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols and air-sea activity rather than kinetic escalation. Taiwan’s record defense budget proposal and drills incorporating lessons from Ukraine and Iran reinforce deterrence in the near term. Trader consensus reflected in the 96% probability for no invasion by end-2026 aligns with these capacity constraints and the absence of triggering events such as a formal Taiwanese independence declaration or abrupt U.S. policy reversal. Residual risks include accidental escalation during exercises or unforeseen leadership decisions that could compress decision timelines.