Tom Tiffany’s commanding 95% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican primary for governor stems primarily from his January 2026 endorsement by President Donald Trump and the subsequent state party endorsement, which consolidated support among party leaders and donors. As the sitting U.S. representative for the 7th district with prior state legislative experience, Tiffany benefits from high name recognition and a largely cleared field after multiple potential rivals, including Josh Schoemann and Eric Hovde, withdrew or declined to run. Only Andy Manske remains on the August 11 ballot as a long-shot challenger. The August primary timeline leaves limited room for late developments such as unexpected health events or major scandals to shift trader consensus before voters decide.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTom Tiffany 99.0%
Tim Michels <1%
Josh Schoemann <1%
Tommy Thompson <1%
$90,778 Vol.
$90,778 Vol.
Tom Tiffany
99%
Tim Michels
<1%
Josh Schoemann
<1%
Tommy Thompson
<1%
Eric Hovde
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Rebecca Kleefisch
<1%
Andy Manske
<1%
Tom Tiffany 99.0%
Tim Michels <1%
Josh Schoemann <1%
Tommy Thompson <1%
$90,778 Vol.
$90,778 Vol.
Tom Tiffany
99%
Tim Michels
<1%
Josh Schoemann
<1%
Tommy Thompson
<1%
Eric Hovde
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Rebecca Kleefisch
<1%
Andy Manske
<1%
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Tiffany’s commanding 95% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican primary for governor stems primarily from his January 2026 endorsement by President Donald Trump and the subsequent state party endorsement, which consolidated support among party leaders and donors. As the sitting U.S. representative for the 7th district with prior state legislative experience, Tiffany benefits from high name recognition and a largely cleared field after multiple potential rivals, including Josh Schoemann and Eric Hovde, withdrew or declined to run. Only Andy Manske remains on the August 11 ballot as a long-shot challenger. The August primary timeline leaves limited room for late developments such as unexpected health events or major scandals to shift trader consensus before voters decide.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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