Trader consensus favors a moderate tweet surge from Elon Musk over March 21-23, 2026, with the 65-89 range leading at 32% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 90-114 at 24.5%, signaling expectations of 20-35 posts daily. This stems from his 2024 baseline of 25-30 tweets per day—down from 2022's 50+ peaks during Twitter rebrand drama—tempered by steady X engagement on AI, politics, and memes absent major catalysts like Tesla earnings or Starship tests. Bettors weigh recent lulls against burst potential from viral feuds, pricing lower ranges below 15% as cultural volatility keeps high-end bins slim at under 2%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour65-89 32%
90-114 25%
115-139 15%
40-64 14%
$77,767 Vol.
$77,767 Vol.
Moins de 40
4%
40-64
14%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
15%
140-164
7%
165-189
6%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 32%
90-114 25%
115-139 15%
40-64 14%
$77,767 Vol.
$77,767 Vol.
Moins de 40
4%
40-64
14%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
15%
140-164
7%
165-189
6%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a moderate tweet surge from Elon Musk over March 21-23, 2026, with the 65-89 range leading at 32% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 90-114 at 24.5%, signaling expectations of 20-35 posts daily. This stems from his 2024 baseline of 25-30 tweets per day—down from 2022's 50+ peaks during Twitter rebrand drama—tempered by steady X engagement on AI, politics, and memes absent major catalysts like Tesla earnings or Starship tests. Bettors weigh recent lulls against burst potential from viral feuds, pricing lower ranges below 15% as cultural volatility keeps high-end bins slim at under 2%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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